YXUFlyboy

People blame the oil price, and it's true that for O&D, YYC is dependent on oil. Big spending by oil companies will drive AC's investment in international routes.

However if you look at what's happened at YYC since the crash - other than NRT going seasonal, AC hasn't withdrawn much service and has introduced some new service to sun destinations. The difference is that for AC, they don't seem to want to drive much traffic thru YYC. About 50% of WS traffic at YYC is connecting and they are relying on that to fill the 789s (and part of the reason why they had hourly flights from YVR). I only see this increasing. Longer term, in the west I see YYC being the European hub and YVR taking most of the Asian routes when they launch, with maybe one or two staying in YYC.

AC could if they wanted shift some capacity out of YVR to YYC, particularly, for example, their summer seasonal Europe routes (DUB, CDG, ZRH). I doubt many people would mind the short hop as it's going the correct way; AC could even share the capacity (5x YVR, 2x YYC) with connections between both to facilitate. They just choose not to - either because they make more money keeping it the way it is, or the overall network strategy of not growing YYC or driving any traffic through it. It seems less likely now they will do that, given past behaviour and given WS seems to be trying to set up YYC as a fortress hub; it is easier to grow YUL where WS's presence is pathetic. I am still surprised WS launched the 789s out of YYC instead of YYZ.

Either way, I am just glad we've kept LHR and FRA, and I'm hopeful NRT returns on a 788/789 in 2020.