I have a few comments on FR (Ryanair) and AN:
1. FR is a low cost, "no thrills" airline in the Southwest model.
2. Tesna-AN, if the hype is to be believed, is to be a "high thrills" 2 class airline, lounges, FF scheme, the works.
You cannot simply apply the business plan of (1) to (2) and guarantee success. I am concerned by the slashing of jobs to 3,000 for ANIII to really do the full service thing. There's not room in our market for two low cost, no thrills carriers (IMHO) and it doesn't seem as though there's room for 2 high cost, high service ones either. ANIII seems to want to be a bit of both, but I don't see how it can do that.
You can't employ high costs (catering, lounges, FF programs etc) with low fares ($77 one way jobs) and expect to make a profit. You won't. That's why Ryanair works - they give you transport at a cheap price with NOTHING else. If weather delays your flight - tough. If your plane has a mechanical - tough. etc etc. FR won't put you up in a hotel, or reroute you on another carrier and all those costly perks that you'd expect from an AN, QF, UA etc.
While it is true the pricipal backers have come from CO and FR, they are different models in action (though CO is closer I will grant, but AN doesn't have Bethune at the controls, either). Hogan from BD is perhaps a fair choice, as they are a similar size carrier in a pretty much similar situation against BA (we'll leave VS out of that as they don't compete on UK regional, short haul routes).
Let's not forget though, Franke comes from HP - otherwise known as America Worst Airlines. In fact I saw a recent analyst view that HP has recovered somewhat ".. since Franke left" - makes you real confident, doesn't it?
And how did HP get into a hole in the US? Overselling planes with deep discount fares, then giving massive $ amounts for DBC, plus muddled maintenance screwups, or dare I say, omissions in terms of cutting regular checks and so on (remember when the FAA was this close to shutting them down over this?).
I am not saying Franke will turn AN into another HP (though it's half way there on it's own) but you have to wonder.
I still feel the big issue is costs. Right now the ONLY people flying AN are the low cost "I want to fly there AS CHEAP AS POSSIBLE" VFR types. I wouldn't be surprised if no C seats have been sold post March 1st... and that's gotta hurt.
Just my 2 cents.
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RichardMEL, UA 1K
A Star Alliance Member.