NWIFlyer

I'd tend to agree this makes a cut more likely given there will now be a large disparity between Eurobonus and M+B earning in Y.

However, there are some commercial considerations which might mean SK continues at the current levels.

SK historicially used to give very poor earnings with *A partners. When I was a BD*G, Y fares earned 125 miles (and BD were one of the more generous). There was clearly a change in strategy to attract more passengers when SK hit financial troubles, and at that point earnings went up significantly for both Eurobonus and external FFPs.

I would think now the airline is more financially stable it will look to address the liabilities on its balance sheet, of which a significant factor will be Eurobonus earnings following several years at improved earning rates. There may be some incentive to burn as well in the short term, and longer term increasing redemption rates has the same effect - they're for the SK forum to deliberate - but the first step is to stop the position becoming worse. It would also be catastrophic to announce both earnings cuts and redemption increases at the same time!

Now of course what other FFPs offer doesn't affect SK's liabilities, so they will still want to attract passengers from other countries - indeed they may need to, because domestic numbers will take a hit in the short term (AF/KL being a good example when they destroyed Flying Blue on April Fool's Day a few years ago). It's therefore in their interests to continue to pay other FFPs decent money so, in turn, they can offer decent earnings.

I also don't see a massive number of people jumping ship - to re-qualify from scratch, certainly if we use M+B as an example, is still harder than remaining with your current programme. By the nature of the current earning table, most Eurobonus members will qualify by flying in Y+ or Business. Earnings on those remain untouched (and are less generous than M+B still). What SK is doing is cutting out the low margin sector of its home customer base now those passengers are surplus to requirement.

SK still remains a viable route for M+B re-qual by buying Y+ or higher, and indeed that's how I retained Gold last year. I don't currently see that changing, and indeed it might well persuade me to buy up on intra-Europe routes if the Y earnings do plummet.