Rerunning the numbers with the PM, GM and FO mileage value and rounding to 3 significant digits:
DM: somewhere between 42500 and 60000 (est 53500)
PM: somewhere between 82500 and 138000 (est 104000)
GM: somewhere between 153000 and 230000 (est 192000)
FO: somewhere between 315000 and 633000 (est 450000)
This math indicates either something is wrong with my estimating technique, or the medallion population has changed dramatically since 2013 with the introduction of MQD. Using these numbers to estimate what percentage of the overall Medallion population is a given level:
DM: 4-10% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 2%)
PM: 8-21% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 6%)
GM: 16-34% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 12%)
FO: 43-69% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 80%)
This suggests to me a combination of factors:
- PM and DM estimates probably should skew toward much higher miles flown than the qualification minimums (unsurprisingly), and FO/GM estimates should be on the lower end (just eking out a particular qualification level.)
- It's also possible that this is an indication that Delta's figures are based on actual physical miles flown - which would account for lower-than-expected numbers of GMs and FOs that disproportionately benefit from 500 mile minimums and class of service bonuses.
- GM is also a commonly comped/gifted status, which confuses things a bit too.
- Lower Medallion tiers (especially FO) may fly disproportionately large portions of their annual mileage during the peak summer and holiday seasons, unlike road warriors whose miles would be more distributed throughout the year.
Even accounting for all of that, though, these numbers suggest to me that the MQD qualification changes have at least partially thinned out the Silver Medallion ranks...
Thanks for sharing the other ranks' numbers, everyone!