:D!

It doesn't matter what the next Hilton promo is, while it does matter what the next IHG promo is.

1) IHG promos are so complicated that there's no way of knowing whether they will want me to stay at 5 HIXs or 5 CPs over 5 weekends in 5 different countries, or something completely different. This makes it difficult to decide on IHG bookings without knowing any details.

With Hilton, you can expect that all your stays will count for something.

2) Hilton promos generally apply to existing bookings, with IHG you can't tell, again incentivising booking with Hilton without knowing what the promo will be.

3) Status members get solid benefits at Hiltons, not so much at IHG. So the main reason to choose an IHG property over Hilton is because the IHG promo gives me almost enough points from one paid night to stay another night.

Assuming it's Accelerate again, if my Q3 targets suck, there's no reason to book any stays at IHG except where the rate is significantly cheaper than Hilton (obviously considering other chains and independent hotels too). In 2017 I had good targets so fulfilled all of them, in 2018 my Q1 targets sucked so I didn't stay at IHG at all, and Q2 was OK so I did half of them.

4) The Hilton promo is probably going to be double points again. Double points is basically the new normal now, and it's only worth an extra 2-3% back on the money spent. This is not really enough to make me choose Hilton where I wouldn't have otherwise chosen it. In other words, if I think that a prepaid rate available now is good, I might as well pay it in case it jumps by 5-10% as the possibility of a better promo that would make it worth paying more isn't likely.

Therefore I'm quite happy to book Hiltons now, and in any case flexible rates can always be changed if IHG does come up with something good.