Diamond status gives you guaranteed lounge access. So you can assess how much this is worth to you at the hotels where you will stay. Let's say it is worth $15 to you, and you can use this for 5 nights a year (since not every hotel has a lounge). So that's $75.
Diamond status earns you an extra 2 points per dollar over gold, so if you are spending $1000 a year, that's an extra 2000 points. Let's call that $10. The Aspire also earns 2 more points per dollar than the Ascend. That's another 2000 points or $10. You also get 1000 points per stay, so let's say 5 stays for 5000 points, or another $25.
Although you may get some room upgrades with Diamond that you would not with Gold, I would not place any value on this possibility.
So just based on this, it is not worth it. But you have to look at the big benefits of the Ascend - the airline credit, resort credit, and free night (note, the free night is an annual benefit that you will receive the first year of the card too, not just on renewal) , and assess a value for these too. These benefits, for me, make the Ascend an obvious choice because these benefits on their own are worth more than $450 to me.
Last edited by jbeckett; Aug 10, 2018 at 1:27 pm