Originally Posted by
CommittedLurker
Another flight change:
March 21 2019 - SFO-HKG CX 879 canceled (meaning CX 870 also canceled).
I really wonder what is going on. This is the first flight of the day from SFO-HKG (and vice versa), and it usually runs full. I am surprised they would cut this flight first if they are trying to reduce capacity on this route.
I hear you, but this is
extremely similar to what happened with LAX in recent years years. I don't think there is anything complicated: SFO yields are just falling after significant capacity increases. Duh! In the last 5 years, SFO has gone from 4x daily flights to 5.5 or 6x, depending on day of the week. Meanwhile all regional Asian destinations have gotten a lot of additional capacity too which pulls customers from CX's increasingly transit-driven network. There isn't unlimited yield out there...and eventually you push capacity until you find the limit. My bet is we're there for now SFO-HKG.
As for CX870/879 cancelled selectively, that's very similar to CX884/885 being cancelled to LAX too. I know for sure that CX870-879 has lower yields historically than CX872/873 (nighttime with F). That's the main reason CX870/879 got downgraded 3 years ago when the B747 left - F was stripped off the daytime flight (74K->77G), but kept on the nighttime (74K->77H). F never returned to CX870/879 fyi. I don't know the yields now, but I don't see why anything changes from when I last had that info. How full the flight is isn't indicative like yield. You can have 20+ ID (staff) passengers on SFO-HKG flights, sell a bunch of cheapo group economy tickets and op-up into J, etc. Meanwhile, CX851/892 is a newer flight which recently went daily. If I was betting money, those two that have been cancelled are the two most likely flights to be cancelled! Although even CX873/872 isn't immune: according to others, it has poor F yields versus other F destinations, although I haven't seen the data myself. CX870/879 I've seen a competitor's analysis on CX; in their appraisal, CX's J class yields significantly less on the daytime flight vs. nighttime CX873/872 (this was pre CX851/892). And you obviously cancel the tourist flight first not the business one if yields are weak across the board.
Originally Posted by
triplefives
I'd put my money on QRC's explanation. It may be full but it doesn't mean it's wildly profitable (think CX employee family benefits who get to travel at an extreme discount on standby). Anecdotally, I've noticed CX870/879 are usually the last flights to fill up whenever I've needed to buy tickets on this route.
Originally Posted by
snicko
Looks like 851 was cancelled on 10/13. I just got moved to 873. Bummer, was looking forward to trying the A350 out!
It's incredible how similar this is to the LAX situation in the last few years. Bummer. If it continues, it would follow that one of the daily SFO flights goes back to not being weekly, or even cancelled. The LAX progression was as follows:
LAX-HKG last 5+ years progression
1.) 3x daily flights, 3x CX.
2.) 4x daily flights, 4x CX (+introduction of CX898/897).
3.) 5x daily flights, 4x CX and 1x AA (+1x daily American Airlines).
4.) 4.5x daily flights, 3.5x CX and 1x AA (-CX begins cancelling CX898/897 on numerous days often multiple times a week, and occasionally cancels CX884/885 too)
5.) 4.5x+ daily flights, 3x CX, 1x AA, 1x HX (+HX launches, -CX permanently cancels CX898/897)
It's not hard to see that LAX, for the time being and all else equal, seems to have an upper limit of about 5x daily flights.
SFO-HKG last few years progression
1.) 4x daily flights, 2x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ
2.) 4.5x daily flights, 2.5x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ (+4x weekly CX851/892, although previously under different flight
#s )
3.) 5x daily flights, 3x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ (+CX851/892 goes daily)
4.) 5.5x daily flights, 3x CX, 1x UA, 1x SQ, 1x HX (+HX launches, not daily
5.) 5x daily flights? (CX851/879 being selectively cancelled?)
You can see how this looks similar to CX on the ramp up, and maybe it's time to trim some capacity.
Also, things to think about quiet changes to capacity
*Capacity declined when B747 left.
*But, now the reverse is happening: seats are being quietly increased due to config changes. That's because CX is going 10 abreast in Y vs 9. +120 daily seats to/from SFO and LAX, or about 1/3 an extra flight worth of capacity per day. You can't just absorb capacity for free. There will be some impact to pricing aka yield.