Originally Posted by
Happy
'
I can tell you that just 3 years ago I would only decide whether I wanted to go for NY or CNY until 1 to 2 months before the dates and there still plenty of J seats to choose from. Even as late as early 2017 the picking was still far far better than the 9 months leading to June 2018. It has been very tough the past 9 months, especially since the beginning of 2018.
I have no knowledge and can't speak of what the availability used to be like. My experience with AS award bookings on CX actually started in November of 2017 when I booked two J JNB-HKG//HKG-BOS 3 months out. All of my bookings have been since then. I never had issue finding premium cabin awards within the general time frame I wanted them. I do have flexibility in my schedule so I tend to go more with what is available than get upset that there isn't a seat for me on a specific day. Keeping an open mind there is prudent too.
The complete zero out started 6 to 8 weeks before June 22nd. My last booking on CX award seats was done on March 9th. Picking was slimmer than I thought. We left home for a month long trip starting first week of April. Upon return when I checked the availability and was shocked to see there were no premium cabin seats on many routes, incl the most reliable ZRH-HKG, and HKG-ADL, not to mention the US-HKG routes.
This is where I have issue with your blanket statement. This simply is not true! (not yelling this time and it wasn't my intent last time, just emphasis!) If awards were completely zeroed out 6-8 weeks prior to June 22nd as you state, then I would not have been able to book CX 1F & 1J LAX-HKG//HKG-BNE on May 21st for February nor added CX F HKG-LAX to an existing MEL-HKG J award (booked on May 24th) on June 15th.
The availability has NOT returned despite you claimed you have seen those. I posted on the AS CX thread trying to find the availability you claimed was showing for Oct 18, JFK-HKG. They are NOT there between Oct 8th thru Oct 23rd. I am holding a booking on Oct 24th and looking for earlier dates so I only checked what I would need - there were only PE available if there is any availability.
On behalf of CX, I apologize that they don't have premium awards available for the dates that are desirable to you. Here again I have issue with you making a blanket statement that CX premium cabin awards have not returned by looking at a small range of dates that are of interest to you specifically. (I anticipate emphasis or are you yelling?
) I went back and looked at JFK-HKG and confirm that some premium cabin awards are available, just not between October 8th and October 23rd. My point was and still is that CX premium cabin awards, which were not showing last week are starting to show now. I checked HKG-BKK, and J is available almost every day of the month of October. Same for SIN and ICN. This evening I also see J HKG-PER and a trickle of HKG-SYD in Y & PE which wasn't there when I checked yesterday. While it may not be at the level you are used to, it is returning!
There is enough discussion on whether AS should be chosen as the miles for the Marriott TP. Enough Pro and Con have been listed out and readers can make their informed decision (or gamble). This also depends on how many miles you have in your various FFP account balances and where you would want to go, with which routing and such.
On this point I agree, people should be making an informed decision; however, there isn't enough information out there to be properly and fully informed to make that decision. If you wan't to know with certainty, wait until the information is disseminated by the people making those decisions. Anything else is a gamble! Stating erroneously that CX awards were zeroed out 6-8 weeks ahead of June 22nd and that the awards have not returned just adds more crap to the plate for people to digest.
Why did you single out AS? It is apparent that you are unhappy with CX because availability is not what you are used to. That is a CX issue, not AS, AA, BA or any other airline. I think you are being a little disingenuous suggesting that AS is a poor choice because of CX availability, which to someone with less knowledge of the current state of CX (reality) can be construed to mean that it is a result of AS.
If one does not have needs for certain program's miles in the next 18 months, there is no reason to pile up when you may have other means to add to your balances.
Not everyone is looking for CX premium awards to Asia, some are just happy to get out of a dark cold winter and spend a couple of weeks on a warm sunny beach. My point was to offer an alternative approach to "hedge" against any partner devaluations withing Mileage Plan. Do we get AS Miles now with a TP or do we wait? Now, 270K gives 120K AS + 7 night certificate, Wait, 270K gives 110K AS, Period. I'll take the extra 10K AS (return SFO-SEA) and the certificate. If I only use it for 1 or two nights I am ahead of the game. Of course if you only use Mileage Plan and don't fly AS your valuation probably will differ.
On top of that, study the new chart and you may find some hotels you have good chance to use, may go down in categories. So you dont want to deplete your account just because the TP would devalue. Piling up miles in the account but not use them in time, is a self-inflicted devaluation in a way.
I have studied the new chart extensively, thank you very much! Just like I have been watching CX awards and reporting what I have found, thank you very much! I have about 500K MR Points and a real need for a 7 night hotel stay in Sydney in February to go with the CX awards I booked in May. The property I am most interested in is currently an SPG Category 5 Hotel that will remain in the same category, with points per night decreasing from 36K to 35K. Of course, I cannot attach a certificate to that property now. A Marriott alternative is currently in Category 8 and moving to Category 5, with points per night decreasing from 40K to 35K. I would be just as happy here too. I am going to go ahead and book the Marriott Category 8 Property now. If after August I can move to my first choice, fantastic, if not I am still happy. If I get a refund of the 30K difference, fantastic, if not I am still happy. I certainly don't expect to cancel and get 240,000 points back. That just isn't going to happen.
James
Just so you know I am genuine in my posts, please see the attached for CX availability for JFK-HKG in October 2018. I base my claims on facts, not emotions.
EDIT: Removing graphics.