I couldn't see in the original post, but is there any rhyme or reason to when these get offered, and a way to find out the likelihood?
I was meant to be going to VCE next week, but had to cancel it (yay travel insurance) as I had an operation and I'm not recovered yet. I booked that back in December or so, and got a POUG to CE which I took.
I've booked a new flight for September (a week or so ago- annoyingly more expensive) but no offer yet... so then I wonder...
Does the fact I accepted one before mean I'm more likely to get one again?
Does the fact I looked at the full cost upgrade price (but didn't pay it) in MMB mark me as "might upgrade" so I am more likely to get one?
I assume flight loads come into it somehow? If it's looking quiet up front they're more likely to offer it?
Or is it all black-box and no one knows...?