Originally Posted by jsloan

I'd say they're not good. As a basic member on a K fare, you'll be at the very end of the list. The only fare class lower than K is G, which is generally reserved for fare sales; I don't remember seeing any G fares on US-SIN routes recently. So, basically, the only people you'd be ahead of on the list are non-revs (or other general members who are also flying K fares but haven't requested an upgrade yet).

Here are your flights. You can view how full the business cabin is with the "United Polaris business Upgrade Standby List." You won't appear on the list -- names don't show up until check-in -- but you can see how many seats are taken: LAX-SIN (17 booked); SIN-LAX (12 booked).

There are two important things to keep in mind here. The first is that most business travel is booked within the last couple of weeks before departure, so don't put too much stock into load numbers this far out, as they can change. The second is that nearly every person with upgrade instruments on your flight (Global Services and 1K) will be attempting to use them. LAX-SIN is the longest flight in the system, so it's unlikely that they'd be saving their certificates for another flight.

Anyway, good luck; here's hoping you beat the odds.

PS: if you don't clear in advance, there's a chance that you'll get an upgrade offer at check-in that might not be much more than the $600 copay. If you accept that offer, your copay and miles would be refunded. I don't know what your offer would be, but it's worth keeping an eye open.