Originally Posted by
tphuang
JetBlue has above average margin every quarter despite having very few monopolies. And mint has only increased their margins.
I use data from BTS with my on algorithm filtering out redempted tickets. They provide the average fare of top market share carrier and lowest fare carrier. My basically match their number, so I'm pretty sure of my numbers. Just to give you an example.
Thanks for the numbers, though the relevant number is really revenue per plane (ie average fare times number of seats sold on each flight), not revenue per ticket sold (assuming only one aircraft type, eg A321; otherwise you have to adjust for that too). With denser configurations and/or higher load factors, an airline can of course get more revenue with a lower average fare. And cheaper tickets tend to have more ancillary revenue associated with them, I'd bet.
BOS-SFO in 2016Q1, pre-mint
B6 5618 280.38
2017 Q2.
B6 5970 384.69
2017 Q3 - after UA added lie flats and DL entered market
B6 7592 317.88
BOS-LAX
2016Q3 (prior to mint entrance)
B6 6248 250.34
2017Q3
B6 6234 307.55
So if I'm reading your numbers right, B6 has gone from 280.38 * 200 = $56,076 per flight to 384.69 * 159 = $61,166 per flight to 317.88 * 159 = $50,543 per flight on BOS-SFO (assuming A321s with 100% load factors for mathematical simplicity), and $50,068 to $48,900 on BOS-LAX by adding Mint. It doesn't look to me like that's a clear win in revenue, certainly not evidence that B6 has settled into sustainable fares that justify widespread deployment of Mint. Now, that's not a long baseline to let Mint fares come into equilibrium, so maybe this doesn't say much about the long term revenue from Mint. I also think they've switched from A320s without Mint to A321s with Mint, so you have to account for both the different capacities and operating costs to do this right. And of course load factors matter.
Originally Posted by
beckoa
AS and VX have both operated this route previously. Think its been 4-5 years on VX and around a decade on AS. I'd like it brought back, but there are several other flights ex-Alaska that have supported nonstop flights that are no longer operated by AS, DEN for one.
Yes, though the difference is that ANC-SFO is now hub to hub, which it wasn't before for either VX or AS (unless you can't AS's old tiny focus city in SFO as a hub) and ANC-DEN certainly wasn't.
Originally Posted by
milypan
So above where I posted the top 50 markets ex-SF, ANC is
#51 . :-)
If you wanted to convert to total annual passengers on the route you’d multiply by 20. I didn’t break it down by season, though that would be pretty easy.
Yeah, though of course ANC is about as seasonal a market as there is. If ANC is 51st overall from SFO, I'm sure it's considerably higher than that in season. And of course ASVX will now be able to fill the flight with connections at both ends, whereas each only had much feed on one end before.