FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)
Old Feb 6, 2018, 8:20 pm
  #830  
bridge29
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: PHL
Programs: AA
Posts: 343
Originally Posted by MOC991
Well I can't find exact numbers for O/D for CLT. They just give percents. I imagine it is buried in the DOT databases somewhere if someone wants to dig if they track that sort of thing. This report from last February says 27% is O/D. For 2016, passenger traffic was 44,422,022 so 27% would be 11,993,946.
https://www.bizjournals.com/charlott...s-in-2016.html

PHL is 62% O/D. For 2016, passenger traffic was 30,155,090 so 62% would be 18,696,156.
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...-new-jobs.html

So for those of us doing math, that would be 55.9% more in O/D traffic based on those absolute numbers. About 12 million versus 18 million.

I could care less about Charlotte. I don't want to live there or the Philadelphia metro, but I wouldn't call Charlotte small. It is about 2.5 million metro population growing about 2%/year versus 6 million metro population in Philadelphia and staying flat. If you factored in passengers connecting from Greensboro or RDU which are 1-2.5 hours drives, then you'd probably end up with higher numbers than PHL for O/D from just central NC. Of course those airports have connections to other airlines' hubs and passengers take them instead of backtracking to a place an hour away. That isn't really AA's fault though. Can't really help that this isn't Germany or something. If the rail improves enough to CLT and they integrate it with the airport, then it likely would allow more people to originate from CLT. AA can charge premium fares from wherever for the convenience of a one-stop connection in CLT and they do so for their TATL and all of their Caribbean and South American destinations. Traditionally connecting is cheaper than an O/D one way because there are competing options, but when you're the only carrier offering a one-stop connection you have more pricing power.

Anyway, I'm not sure what the negativity is about. It is not a tangent to say that AA's second largest hub behind DFW should have more TATL flights than its smaller hubs on the thread called "Possible Routes and Hubs". As for internet armchair CEO, the word from the horse's mouth is that they're positioning their 767s in PHL and moving A330s from PHL to CLT. As for retiring the 9 A333s in 2020, they already have 15 A332s, 20 788s, 14 789s with 8 more on order, 47 772ER, 20 773ER, with a choice to order A350s, A339s, 789s, and possibly 777ERs/777Xs depending what they decide. It seems part of the issue with CLT is they are overdue an expansion so that could be contributing to AA choosing their more unique and defensible South American and Caribbean connections over TATL due to lack of space.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed.../#4f3043dd250f
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed.../#60937d0314a2
https://thepointsguy.com/2018/01/aa-...rcraft-growth/

My main point was that CLT being the second largest hub with more traffic could likely afford more TATL flights. Their hubs need to be properly aligned for their regions. DFW, MIA, and CLT all overlap areas and AA doesn't seem to know what to do. PHL is being pushed as the only TATL hub even though EWR and JFK are right around the corner in terms of O/D and other general traffic competition. Even the airports served by CLT that have PHL flight also tend not to have the flights timed right for the TATL connections. They don't have a late return flight for the afternoon return TATL flights. With Air Berlin being gone, it really throws a wrench in things. DUB year-round would work if Aer Lingus joined OW but that looks unlikely. AMS is Skyteam even though it is a good destination airport. MUC, DUS, TXL, and ZRH are all unlikely since it is *A territory. LHR is their only connecting airport and it is in the most expensive inconvenient spot possible so most frequent flyers avoid it. I suppose while AA and OW neglect TATL outside of LHR, I'll burn my AA miles and switch to Delta with its dreadful Skypesos and possibly United as they are starting to offer regional flights in AA's territory to one-stop TATL hubs. I suppose it is too hard for AA to do that, but United can set up new ops while Delta is turning three times the profit on the same revenue as AA serving the same connections. Maybe AA needs an armchair CEO or a different one at least.
Aside from the nonsense about adding nearby cities to CLT's O&D (then add NYC and Baltimore to PHL's potential O&D, right?), you are wrong about A330s moving from PHL to CLT. PHL is not seeing a single A332 flight being replaced by a 767. PHL is getting two brand new TA flights with the 767 along with an upgauge to LIS from a 757 to 767. PHL will still see the bulk of the A332 international traffic.
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