FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Old Nov 27, 2017, 8:32 pm
  #1140  
In The 216
formerly FrequentFlyKid
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Programs: United Global Services, Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador, National Executive Elite
Posts: 981
Originally Posted by jsloan
“10 months in advance” doesn’t mean much in this context. It does control your position on the waitlist, vis-a-vis passengers who are in the same fare class as you, but that’s all. Most business travel is planned within about 2 weeks of departure, with the exception of conferences and the like.

I don’t know much about pricing on US-Australia, but what I would do is go ahead and keep your waitlist for now and keep an eye on both the load and the price of a P fare. You shouldn’t need to pay a change fee to move to business class on the same flight (refer to GG BUYUP if the agent talks about a fee). If a fare sale comes up, go for it; otherwise, I’d continue to wait. I believe that UA has some 150-day advance purchase P fares; 50- and 30- day fares are also common. So, those are probably your decision points; read the advance purchase rules on the current fare and you’ll get an idea of when the price is likely to escalate. (Of course, they can pull a fare at any time, and they can choose to limit P inventory at their leisure — but you’re already gambling by waitlisting an instrument... )

If you’re feeling lucky — or if load stays low — you can take it all the way to the gate with the hope of a buy-up offer. If you search the buy-up thread, I expect you’ll be able to find some examples of what those cost (assuming your GPU doesn’t look likely to clear, that is).
I think the statement you made about most business travel being planned with two weeks of departure is grossly generalized and likely not true. I don't think MOST business travel is planned within 14 days of departure. Some? Of course, most? Probably not.
In The 216 is offline