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You don't seem to realize how small Starwood was relative to Marriott, and that it was actively looking for a buyer. So that's what drove that merger (which almost got scuttled a couple times by counter proposals from Chinese investment firms to buy Starwood instead).

There's no similar going on with either Choice or Wynhdam.

I would think it's much more likely that somebody swallows up La Quinta or even Hyatt (both of which are much smaller than their competitors) than that any of the existing big "budget" families,(Choice, Wyndham, and Best Western) get together.

It also makes more sense for Choice to get together with Choice before they get together with program under another name. Ie, do you realize that there's a Nordic Choice in Scandinavia which is a separate company with a separate program, and similar in a few other places in the world? Ie, there's not just one "Choice" in the world, there's several. (Any country in which Choice Privileges is redeem-only is a country where Choice is a separate company/program.) As so which of those Choice companies would merge with someone else?

Until / unless Choice consolidates into one worldwide company, I don't see how it could easily merge with anyone else worldwide. (It could, of course, swallow up up a small chain, just like any other hotel family can. There's still zillions of small chains out there that could theoretically be swallowed up, even though a dozen or two have been swallowed up by various programs in recent years.)