There is some pretty good data in the buy up offers thread. There are many people with insufficient EQDs and they are offered a buy up amount that reflects the delta between where they are with EQDs and the EQD requirement, plus a bit more. There seem to be significantly fewer people like years past who are just short on miles and looking for a buy up that is "less than cost of a MR + inconvenience of a MR"
This is only FT data and its not much, but it suggests to me there will be fewer elites across all the buckets.