Originally Posted by ijgordon

I would generally choose the longest overwater flight, but there are always other considerations, many discussed.
What I don't think was discussed was the time of year. Summer is risky because of afternoon T-storms. Winter is risky because of potential for snowstorms, but less frequent than summer T-storms. Spring and fall generally okay, except for early fall hurricanes.

If this is a summer flight, the T-storm issue pushes option #1 further down the list, to the point where I think I'd rather take the 1h35m connection in CDG, especially since there is probably a backup CDG-ZRH an hour or two later, at least on weekdays (IIRC their ZRH schedule on Saturday is pretty weak). And if you're on time, there is probably even time for a shower in the lounge.

If you do misconnect in JFK, I'm sure there are plenty of other routings to get you to ZRH, especially since JFK-ZRH is relatively early, but you would certainly risk losing the upgrade.