For me, I think this will be an overall net negative - this year I went from a job where I booked pretty close in (2 weeks to several days before departure) to a job where I regularly book 3-4 weeks or more before.
I would say I'm generally seeing more upgrades, but it's so route dependent. ORD>LGA remains tough (so many CK), but most other routes no problem.
I've had a handful of Thursday night upgrades where I've cleared or been
#1 or
#2 , and ultimately cleared, while the list has been 30+ people. For example, I had a thursday afternoon flight from DFW to LGA that was sold out in F when I booked about 5 weeks prior, but I was # 1 on the list. I utimately cleared (see below RE: CKs, after being moved down to
#4 - thanks to a a couple that didn't want to split up).
My spend is likely above average, at least until November (I had some expensive international business travel in November 2016, don't think that will happen again).
For leisure travel, I generally book far in advance, and usually don't have a problem clearing upgrades. But again, it's very route dependent. On routes where PLTs and maybe even GLDs are clearing, it won't matter. On those unfortunate routes where EXPs are in the back, it might tip the tables.
I think what's hurt me more than anything is prioritizing CKs over EXPs. I've had several situations where I've been
#1 or
#2 on the list, only to be moved to
#4 or
#5 , presumably by CKs doing SDCFC and then getting on the UPG list. I can tell since their names (when called for boarding) tend to match the "cleared" names on the UPG list.
oh well...