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Old Oct 6, 16, 5:59 pm
  #7  
OPNLguy
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,028
Originally Posted by scootr5 View Post
Nothing for MIA even though they're in the path?
MIA isn't really in the direct path of Matthew, but on its SW side. It appears the eye is headed towards the Melbourne area. Given the counterclockwise circulation around the eye, you can see the wind shifts as the eye moves. In the latest forecast for MIA below, I've bolded the wind direction (expressed in degrees), and the underlined numbers are steady winds (in knots) with any numbers after the "G" being gusts...

MIA's immediate problem are between 22z-24z when the winds are forecasted from the north at 25 gusting 35. MIA's main runways are east-west, so that strong a wind from the north is going to flirt with max crosswind limits (usually 30-35 kts). As the storm's eye moves N and then to the NE, you can then see how MIA's forecast reflects the winds changing to come out of the NW (290), then W (260), and then SW (230).

MIA will likely be the first south Florida airport to resume operations, followed by FLL, and PBI later still, all presuming any of the airports didn't suffer damage, flooding, and/or electrical outages.

KMIA 062215Z 0622/0718 29015G25KT P6SM SHRA SCT020 BKN035 BKN050
TEMPO 0622/0624 35025G35KT 2SM RA BKN020 BKN035 OVC050
FM070000 29020G25KT 4SM SHRA BKN025 OVC050
FM070600 26015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN035
FM071200 23018G28KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN050

And, by way of comparison, one really wouldn't want to be in Vero Beach or Melbourne early tomorrow morning...

KVRB 062332Z 0700/0724 02024G39KT 3SM SHRA SCT019 BKN050 OVC060
TEMPO 0700/0704 VRB40G50KT 2SM +SHRA BKN009 BKN016
FM070500 01050G70KT 2SM +SHRA BKN012
FM070800 33080G100KT 1SM +SHRA BKN006
FM071130 25055G75KT 3SM SHRA BKN015
FM071800 28028G37KT 4SM SHRA BKN028


KMLB 062332Z 0700/0724 03028G36KT 3SM -SHRA BKN019 OVC026
TEMPO 0700/0704 VRB35G48KT 2SM +SHRA BKN009 BKN016
FM070700 03050G70KT 2SM +SHRA BKN012
FM071100 36080G100KT 1SM +SHRA BKN006
FM071800 25032G42KT 4SM SHRA BKN018

Last edited by OPNLguy; Oct 6, 16 at 6:19 pm
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