Where do people think the frequent flier/stayer programs and earning go from here?
Where do people think the frequent flier/stayer programs and earning go from here? It seems like we are in a trough or perhaps on a downward slide into oblivion.
Chase now denies you if you have had 5+ personal credit cards opened in the last 24 months; Citi denies you if you have opened or closed a card with the same type of points in the previous 24 months; AmEx is once-in-a-lifetime on personal cards . . .
Meanwhile, manufactured spending has become far more complex and difficult, often requiring 3-4 steps and a lot of time for many people and the airlines and hotels are moving to revenue-based models.
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My thoughts . . .
I found FT in April 2011, around the time that a number of the bigger-name travel bloggers were going fulltime. The next several years, through last year and maybe early this year, it was possible to get a LOT of signup bonus miles. My wife and I got more than 100 credit cards between us in those five years. It was rare that I had to do MS, and I never bothered other than when I was shy on spend for a signup bonus.
But the rise in viewership on blogs, FT, Milepoint/InsideFlyer, Dan's Deals, Reddit, and elsewhere has ballooned the number of people going after these deals and almost any idiot could take advantage of these programs. So they cut back the bonuses, they eliminate the easy MS opportunities.
There is going to be a huge drop, I think, in those actively churning and doing MS. It is just not within the reach of most people anymore. The bloggers who live off of credit-card referrals are going to go under unless they can find another source of income. My wife and I might get a couple of cards in the next year instead of 20. Even those just starting out can only really get a handful of cards and bonuses. Maybe enough for a trip or two.
With fewer bloggers, less to say on the sites, and a lot less low-hanging fruit, the credit card companies are going to be issuing a lot less cards and have to entice people to keep the ones they have. If there are not waived fees every year on every card, I'm going to cancel them all at once if the clock is going to reset anyway. I've already trimmed a lot of our cards this year, usually in large batches.
So, in another year or two, I think things are going to loosen up again. Maybe not completely but enough.