Bloomsbury

Here's the scenario...

I'm flying on BA1 to JFK next Thursday. Originally I was going to New York to meet a musician, they're now however going to be in LA, so a late change of plans! I need to get to LA that evening and ideally not blow the bank doing so.

Here's the two options that make the most sense, plus a 3rd ghastly thought.

1) Fly JFK-PHX-LAX leaving at 16:29, arriving 21:35. All for £576 in old domestic F. But does get F tier points.

2) Hold out for redemptions on AA's 3 class transcon on the 3:30pm or 4:45pm flights

3) Fly economy on AA, Virgin or Jetblue for around £300.

The problem here is that the late AA transcon seats only gets released within 48 hours of departure on BA.com. I've been monitoring it and there is highly likely to be good business and first seats released for that day, but the gamble is whether either of those two flights are included.

If you were me, what would you do? Is it worth booking a refundable ticket or should I just suck it up and do the JFK-PHX-LAX (which is about as late as I'd want to arrive)

Thanks in advance for any suggestions!