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Old Apr 26, 16, 10:24 pm
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Originally Posted by Longboater View Post
Well at least someone on this thread agrees with me! LOL. I think in the end it will come down to DOT choosing between DFW-HND and either MSP-HND or EWR-HND. (Sorry HAL but unless HND opens up as DL desires, you're not receiving KOA-HND, despite how well you've done with HND flying and KOA-HND will likely be a successful route and a major boost to West Hawai'i's economy.)

From what I understand, Japan's MLIT only award the number of slots rather than specific destinations. (If DOT did this, DL would definitely receive three slots.) JAL receives two daytime slots per condition of the bankruptcy agreement years ago. I doubt JAL will continue HND flying into HNL and they'll choose two mainland US destinations. Pretty safe to assume they'll keep SFO-HND. Second destination would either be JFK, where they operate twice a day since AA discontinued JFK-TYO flying or ORD. NH is strongly rumoured to favour JFK-HND, although IAD-HND is not out of the question. It could very well come down to what JAL/NH end up doing with their slots. If JAL/NH both operate out of JFK, then I'd figure EWR-HND has little chance. I'm not so sure DOT would want half of the HND slots operating out of NYC/LAX in addition to two slots out of HNL. I read AA's application and they have a very strong case in arguing DFW is underserved to TYO than say NYC, LAX, or ORD, hence why AA still has two nonstops to NRT, in addition to JAL's recently added DFW-NRT, despite adding DFW-ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG in the past three years.
I think the DOT will be making a decision before ANA/JAL announce their destinations, so I don't think ANA or JAL's decisions to fly to JFK will impact the DOT's decision. I have heard that JAL will use its two slots for SFO and ORD/JFK. The decision of JFK or ORD will depend on the outcome of the DOT's decision of who to award the slots to, with JFK more likely if UA does not get EWR-HND and ORD more likely if UA does get EWR-HND. ANA is apparently going to choose JFK (possibly, but probably not, EWR if UA does not get the slot) and ORD, while it is apparently debating between two options for its other two slots. Option one is using the daytime slot for LAX and the nighttime slot for HNL, while option two is using the nighttime slot for LAX and using the daytime slot for IAD or IAH. Apparently they think LAX-HND is viable at night even with 2 potential daytime flights because they are satisfied with the load factors on the current night flight, which is on a 77W (AA uses a 788 and DL uses a 767). AA and DL for LAX, DL for ATL, HAL for HNL, UA for SFO are apparently all pretty much locked, but the DOT is apparently considering giving DL a nighttime slot for LAX-HND and HAL a daytime slot should they decide to give DL 3 slots.

DL is also apparently preparing for a scenario in which they are not awarded MSP-HND, and it seems they are not bluffing and will most likely cut MSP-NRT. KE, ANA, and a few Chinese airlines are exploring the possibility of entering MSP should DL cut MSP-Tokyo, and KE is said to be the most serious candidate. PDX-NRT is also expected to be cut in the near future, but Asian airlines are showing less interest in PDX.
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