Originally Posted by
DA201
I agree with most of what you say about DL. The biggest thing I disagree with in your post is AA getting DFW-HND over UA's EWR-HND. The DOT tried to split the slots up by giving every JV an almost equal number of flights, and it did not end up working out. UA originally had none, but it became (arguably) the strongest performer once it received the slot. The DOT also knows that NYC has more O&D than everywhere except LA (maybe SFO as well), and it should have at least one flight. It can't assume ANA/JAL will provide that flight, because it has not been announced and until it is announced, it is theoretically possible NYC does not receive a flight. Along with this, no other proposed flight is in the Northeast or within a 750 mi radius of NYC. This is partially why AA earned JFK-HND over UA's SFO-HND when slots were originally handed out. There is actually a pretty good chance ANA will operate the only flight to NYC should UA not get the EWR slot. It makes more sense for JAL to operate HND-ORD over JFK (assuming they keep SFO) because of AA's much larger hub at ORD. AA/JL currently operate the same number of daily seats between ORD-NRT and JFK-NRT, which demonstrates just how important ORD is (as it has much fewer O&D passengers). Because of all of this, I think the DOT will reluctantly give UA an EWR flight.
Well at least someone on this thread agrees with me! LOL. I think in the end it will come down to DOT choosing between DFW-HND and either MSP-HND or EWR-HND. (Sorry HAL but unless HND opens up as DL desires, you're not receiving KOA-HND, despite how well you've done with HND flying and KOA-HND will likely be a successful route and a major boost to West Hawai'i's economy.)
From what I understand, Japan's MLIT only award the number of slots rather than specific destinations. (If DOT did this, DL would definitely receive three slots.) JAL receives two daytime slots per condition of the bankruptcy agreement years ago. I doubt JAL will continue HND flying into HNL and they'll choose two mainland US destinations. Pretty safe to assume they'll keep SFO-HND. Second destination would either be JFK, where they operate twice a day since AA discontinued JFK-TYO flying or ORD. NH is strongly rumoured to favour JFK-HND, although IAD-HND is not out of the question. It could very well come down to what JAL/NH end up doing with their slots. If JAL/NH both operate out of JFK, then I'd figure EWR-HND has little chance. I'm not so sure DOT would want half of the HND slots operating out of NYC/LAX in addition to two slots out of HNL. I read AA's application and they have a very strong case in arguing DFW is
underserved to TYO than say NYC, LAX, or ORD, hence why AA still has two nonstops to NRT, in addition to JAL's recently added DFW-NRT, despite adding DFW-ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG in the past three years.