BotB

Thanks KARFA and smckay good info ^

Interestingly, (and it may still change back to less of a certainty / threat) LGW aerodrome forecast is now showing a certainty (no may happen about it as the forecast shows TEMPO rather than PROB) of thunderstorms in the evening from 17:00 local time onwards...(from the daytime heating of the cloud tops combined with the energy potential of the air mass and moisture available). LHR is still saying it is a chance rather than a certainty and has shown that if it happens it will be a bit worse than previously thought (lower visibility of 3000 meters in heavy rain<which still isn't low enough to be honest compared to what it will be if there are heavy rain showers and thunderstorms at the airport>)

In the morning hours both do see the highest probability of some flight restrictions due to low cloud ceilings (800 feet) and gusting winds with the heavy rain but not expecting the thunderstorms to really kick off until late afternoon.

Will be interesting to see how the models do once the system moves up a bit more from Spain and how the air mass is tracking once it hits landfall (should be late this evening)...There will be greater certainty of where things are going and how serious they will be once the system arrives in the UK and gets modified (which is hard to get right until it actually happens).