Originally Posted by
Exec_Plat
you're thinking of jumping onto that flight now??? 19 days and only 10 seats?
The calculus is [number of J to F upgrades that will happen] + [10 open seats] - [your position on the waitlist] - [# of J seats sold up to flight time] >=0
Originally Posted by
SeattleDavid
Its hard to say much about one flight - much easier to choose the better bet of two or more flights.
That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.
Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.
(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
I appreciate the input. I'm currently waitlisted for the gauntlet that is AA138 HKG-DFW since last July, so my chances on that should be decent (knock on wood). However, since I received an involuntary schedule change and assuming it'll be a free change, considering booking to AA170 to go straight to work. I guess the best strategy is to wait until C opens up, but was just curios why row 20 was wide open in MCE, maybe not as elite heavy? Or these seats are just bad.
Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?