AF has a lot of different types of customers who will respond differently. I can only speak for myself, though I suspect there are a lot of AF flyers like me. I fly about 4 to 6 times a year TATL on business. Always either paid business class or upgraded with miles. I prefer AF, though fly others, with UA (which I fly a lot domestically) the second most common. I just re-qualified for AF silver (if my re-booked flights all show up in my mileage statement, and right now only some are, though I have made claims for the rest). Based on bookings I had already made for the rest of the year, I will be gold by the end of 2014. (I will also likely be UA gold by then).
The strike is just a factor, but it is not an insignificant one and it is a negative factor. If the price and convenience of TATL flights was about the same, I used to tilt towards AF, but am now I think I will be more likely to tilt towards my prior second choices UA or LH (my next TATL is on UA - where, as someone said, you worry about the planes being on strike rather than the pilots), even if the connections are not quite as good.
I am currently contemplating two bookings TATL in the Spring. Additional miles, unless level qualifying miles, are unlikely to entice me towards AF. A price of 7k, as these currently are, will just cause me to continue to wait, while I constantly check price and upgrades of various airlines till usually about 3 months in advance or so. A business class price closer to refundable economy is the kind of thing that would cause me to buy right then.
So for this type of business traveler, a sale on business class tickets would be the only thing that I think would likely entice me to book AF before next January.