I don't trust anyone or anything (companies, etc.) with more than I can afford to lose.
But I do consider loyalty programs an investment, and I don't like it when my returns are less than anticipated/expected/indicated. Carlson went heavy on promos, etc a couple years ago and then the hotel redemption values went up, at least for the hotels useful to me (9k to 28k - ish). If I had known, I would not have invested my time and "stays" in them. But that could happen with any program. Luckily my useage is usually in the lower end of the programs out there (economy fligts - I tend towards quantity rather than quality on airlines, but v.v. on hotels) and I can't think of ANY program that has pleasantly surprised me with giving better returns than expected. Except maybe IHG - they have been really good to me with upgrades and promos.