Originally Posted by
Darlox
With that mix of references, I can't quite tell whether you're agreeing with me, disagreeing with me, or just attempting to add data...
In essence, those reports indicate:
* North American airlines are expected to post the strongest performance.
* Long-haul hub-hub Asia-NA routes should have the highest yields
* Yields are down globally, but nowhere near unprofitable territory except for small cargo-only carriers.
I didn't quite draw the same conclusions as you from the same data, I guess. Asia-NA has a lot of potential but there are a number of cargo-only operations in those markets which are going to compete better than UA will.
I agree that the operations are not money-losing, but I wouldn't necessarily focus on it as an area where I expect to make a lot of money in UA's position. They can continue to carry cargo where it makes sense within their route network but the dedicated cargo carriers are going to clean up on this well before UA sees huge gains.
I also see comments like this one and question your assertion that anyone is going to do spectacular in the market between N. America and Asia:
The outlook for Asia-Pacific airlines is downgraded largely due to slower growth among the region’s emerging economies. Asia-Pacific carriers are the largest players in global cargo markets and the most affected by its flat performance.
And the Boeing doc seems to agree that passenger airlines are playing second fiddle in the market:
Continuing a trend of many years in the Asia Pacific region, all-cargo and combination carriers will take the greatest number of large freighters, which are uniquely suited to long-haul, intercontinental markets.