Originally Posted by PV_Premier

COdbaUA has repeatedly miscalculated PQM then clawed them back at the end of the year, including up to 6 months after they were mistakenly "earned". As such it is almost a requirement to self-track the PQM, particularly for those who cut it close, or "fear the reaper".

OP I recommend you choose the most conservative of the two estimates as your basis for earning. I'd never cut it closer than +500 miles over a threshold particularly an important one like 1K.