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Old Oct 5, 2013, 5:27 am
  #9  
tom911
In Memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Benicia CA
Programs: Alaska MVP Gold 75K, AA 3.8MM, UA 1.1MM, enjoying the retired life
Posts: 31,849
Originally Posted by Jasper2009
I did an extensive search for TATL upgrade availability: upgrade from Y to J; each day 30 to 90 days in the future on 15 TATL flights; outbound and inbound = 1800 flights (which should be a decent sample size)

Shockingly I found upgrade availability on exactly 26 out of 1800 possible flights. Yes, thatīs a success rate of 1.5%.
Are you including hidden EXP systemwide availability in those numbers (I suspect not)? I regularly benefit from that and you won't see it on the web site or Expert Flyer. The agent has to input your account number to see that availability, so it would require talking to an agent for each and every one of those 1800 flights you researched to see what is available that may be hidden from public view.

I've cleared 100% for 12 years running now including 8 systemwides this year, and I'd say that 90% of those have cleared at booking, though I'm not flying during the summer for the most part. I recall one flight they opened up 3 seats for my party when Expert Flyer showed "0". This year they opened up seats for me from both Frankfurt and Dublin. As you gain some more experience with the EXP program you'll hopefully be able to utilize these perks.
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