Originally Posted by
GNRMatt
Those mergers that went through didn't get sued by the DOJ to stop it, so that's a HUGE difference. Also, the success/failure of one merger has no bearing on this merger. It's a different environment now and you need to look at it from that perspective. You can believe what you want, but at the end of the day, I'd be shocked if this merger goes through.
Your theory would seem to assume there actually will be a full trial, with the Judge ruling in favor of the DOJ's position of "no compromise" - just stop the merger. IMO, very unlikely. The only way I can see this not ending in an acceptable compromise (for AA), is for the Judge to permit the DOJ to cause incessant delays in the judicial process so that Parker and Horton feel it's not worth the effort to continue. I really do not feel the Obama Administration is going to take responsibility for the potential failure of these companies in the next 2 or so years, by taking an intractable position.