Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Programs: BA Lifetime Gold; Flying Blue Life Platinum; LH Sen.; Hilton Diamond; Kemal Kebabs Prized Customer
Posts: 63,803
And I believe your analysis is correct too.
Therefore you may also want to think about giving a Gold to whoever is the second most acceptable recipient, and give the Gold card to your primary recipient next year. That way you can keep up to three people in Silver or Gold if you keep churning the TPs. However your primary recipient may not enjoy a year at Silver!