Old Jun 20, 13, 10:25 am
  #808  
FWAAA
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Join Date: May 2001
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Originally Posted by skyfly View Post
PHL: PHL will serve as connector hub for transatlantic flights feeding flights that come from small markets within the east coast (RIC, BUF, MDT, etc). Currently, if a passenger wanted to book an AA flight from BUF, SYR, ROC, PIT, etc going to Europe, then most flights will need to connect to ORD which is out of the way. PHL will serve and focus primarily on secondary European markets such as ATH, VCE, BCN, GLA, SNN, DUB, TLV etc with mostly connecting traffic. AA will keep JFK as is. AA is unable to to grow JFK anymore than what is now due to slot controls. JFK will be mostly O+D for the NYC area serving lucrative markets like LHR, CDG, HDN, etc. In a nutshell, JFK and PHL hubs will be modeled the same way United (Continental) have structured their east coast hubs. For United Airlines, EWR is becoming more O+D operation serving NYC base passenger base and IAD gets the connecting passenger transatlantic feed (it's profitable for NYC to be only O+D than connecting passenger traffic).
The bolded part is completely inaccurate.

AA acquired about a dozen slot pairs from B6 in exchange for some DCA slots and has been squatting on those slots ever since (waiting for its costs to get in line and for the arrival of the new 787s). This summer, AA has about 20 or more domestic departures from JFK to small-medium cities during the primetime 3pm-9pm timeframe that are destined for more international nonstops.

AA built the biggest terminal at JFK and it has gates that are gathering dust. AA faces no real capacity constraints at JFK with respect to new long-haul flights.

Originally Posted by skyfly View Post
PHX: Only time will tell how PHX will play out in the merger. I believe PHX will stay as is for the time being as AA/US will want to see how it co-exist sandwiched between LAX and DFW after the merger dust settles. THe new AA could shift PHX flights with intra-west secondary west coast markets (RNO, GEG, BOI, SMF, ONT, SLC, etc). For many passengers, LAX is too far west to make west coast connections work. LAX has no more room to grow and AA is already needing more gate space. Geographically, DEN or SLC works better for intra-western western hub, but since DL dominates SLC and DEN is home to 3 big players (UA, WN, F9), would be difficult for AA to set up hub operation in DEN. PHX is the only alternative for AA with intra-west hub. Another advantage for PHX is the low cost gate leases, etc and I am sure the city of PHX will give the new AA incentives to keep PHX as a hub status. Furthermore, with AA's bankruptcy allows them to restructure cost. AA's cost structure will be lower than Southwests so AA can afford and compete effectively head to head with Southwest in PHX.
Yes, AA has lowered its costs in Ch 11, but not as low as US' costs. America West had rock-bottom costs yet ceded about half of the local market to WN. Even after the merger with US, US continued to have the lowest costs (thanks to very low labor costs with pilots and FAs) and yet US has made no inroads against WN at PHX.

Now, US costs are going to rise dramatically (to match AA's higher costs) and now, magically, all of a sudden, the new AA will be able to "compete effectively head to head with Southwest in PHX?" That's a good one.

PHX is a huge O&D market - 8th largest domestic O&D airport - and will be an important part of the new AA, but it's over-served by 50-seaters flying long stage lengths. Look for some trimming.
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