In response to a few point, yes, I know UA is a gamble. But I've split my travel at 50/30/20 between US/UA/*A over the past few years because, as I said, I'm stuck between their two major hubs. Yes, EWR is a dump but there are more direct flights across the pond and, if I'm not getting any upgrades TATL on US anyway, it comes down to a cost/benefit ratio of direct vs. connection. Plus my primary intl destination, DUB, is served by a 752 w/IFE by UA, and a dumpy 762 without IFE by US.
You are correct about the status match, nothing currently due to *A rules and agreements. If that ends, I can match through the challenge and retain *G. And quite frankly, I don't look forward to surchages through the teeth for intl rewards that I'll be mostly forced to connect through LHR for.
For me, I think there's more value staying in *A. I'll give the new AA a shot out of loyalty, but I'm not optimistic.