Optiontown could not perform upgrades for both ARN-EWR Jan.15 and EWR-ARN Jan.22, for two persons. Request was both from Economy to Business or from Economy to Economy Extra. OK, it's gambling anyway
Interestingly on the flight ARN-EWR there still were several empty seats in Business even after bunch of people (including me and my daughter) upgraded for points. Go figure what a "complex business model" is behind such decisions...