i do remember researching this a ways back and i just applied for this card and was approved. the best approach does seem to be to sign up for this no annual fee card first. then in the future if you sign up for the surpass card you will receive 20000 bonus points. amex will give you the difference in the first purchase bonus between the 2 cards as surpass now has 40000 points after first purchase. but the best option seems to be to get the free card and then wait for a much better offer for the surpass card. some had reported being targeted for bonuses much greater than the 40000 points for the surpass card.