FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] 1099s for miles & cash rewards from all banks
Old Feb 23, 2011, 6:22 pm
  #42  
Mountain Trader
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Denver CO
Posts: 3,682
Originally Posted by Happy
If you are in the 35 to 50% bracket (including state tax), the cash out of pocket can be quite hurtful.

OTOH, AA miles if used wisely could easily worth 0.05 or more for us based on our need, and that is not even in biz class, but plain old coach One-Way Europe - NA off peak that we often needed. We used one last May and will use another this May. Had I purchased that one-way just to NA gateway, the cheapest out of pocket is $3600 nonstop and the cheapest option is AA., followed by Air France, Delta and Iberia which wants a mere $4000. A 10 hours flight for the non stop.

Go to 1 or 2 stop, except 2 or 3 BA flights with immediate connections (13 hrs) the others all require an overnight somewhere, and the journey becomes 20 to 30 hrs.

It is $1680 one-stop on BA. If we are willing to go for 2 stops (Agh!) it drops to $900 on Air Berlin, $1230 on Air Lingus, and $1450 on SAS. For a mere 20K - that is a big $ saving to us if using the 1-stop. I dont think I would take Air Berlin for this.

So the AA mile would worth $0.07 to $0.084 per mile - that would justify the tax paid if one wins big.

Using it for a OneWorld award, in business, one could still achieve a $0.08 per mile. We did an AA 150C OneWorld award in 2009, the itinerary can be duplicated with more restrictions on a Circle Pacific OneWorld revenue fare at $12,000. That means the 150K miles are at $0.08 per mile value.

Using it for domestic travel though, probably only achieve $0.02 to $0.05 depends on WHEN you need the award.
Everything you say is true, Happy, as usual. But I apply big discounts for:

1. Time Value of Money-Any miles I receive at this point will likely not be used for 5 years or more. Thus I apply a discount not only for present value but also for....

2. Unknown Future Program Changes-What will AAdvantage terms and conditions be in 2016? Beats me too, but I'll bet you $5 they will not be as good as they are today. Will that come about via higher mile values required for redemption, co-pays, priorities to status customers or some as yet uninvented burden? Time will tell.

3. Risk of Program and/or Airline Failure-I don't know what the risk of a bankruptcy leading to the failure of a program is, but I do know that it is not 0.

There's more but I'll leave it there, for now.
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