I'm close to a 100 percent success rate on VIPOWs. (I think there was one flight where the upgrade didn't clear.) I've often been waitlisted until the last minute, though.
If you mean upgrading from coach to first on a three-class aircraft, there's no such award or certificate. It happened to me once: VIPOW from coach to business, followed by an operational upgrade to first because the flight was oversold and they rolled people all the way forward. Other than that, which is rare and hard to plan for, it's $$ (or their equivalent in other currencies), and lots of them.