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Old Jun 28, 2009, 9:33 pm
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mersk862
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Originally Posted by atldlff
You have to take in much more into account in the analysis. Since others have questioned this, let me see if I can shed some light to how it was explained. I may not do it justice so others chime in and help with the details if I get this wrong.

First off, I don’t think it was funny math. This discussion about upgrades was in the context of a review that was done at the CEO level. This review was line by line, feature by feature of the new combined program, not just pre-merger Delta. Each item was benchmarked against the industry standard. If it was below, what would it take to bring it up to that standard. If it was above, what is the cost of leaving it that way vs. aligning with the Industry standard.

Second, I don’t think you can look at last years numbers for just pre-merger Delta in making an analysis, you would also need to add in pre-merger NW. As stated in the notes at the beginning of the thread, each item was evaluated against 3 criteria - Customer impact, Financial impact, and Technology impact.

Third, it wasn’t stated that Delta would gain a $150M in incremental pure revenue. It is the value placed on leaving the current elite upgrade program as is vs. the industry standard. Delta is the ONLY US Airline to offer unlimited complementary upgrades on all flights for all levels of its elite program. The point was that Delta could have benchmarked themselves against the competition and offered the industry standard unlimited upgrades to Platinum members ONLY, with free upgrades for Y & B only for Gold and Silver. That would leave a huge segment of Gold and Silver (on M,H,Q,K,L,U and T fares) that would have to purchase upgrades either by paying $$ or using miles to get the same benefit they currently have today. I won’t debate the value of the miles used for the upgrade. In the end, the REAL $$ number wasn’t even the real issue as this was one of the items that falls into the category of changing this would have “Greater impact to the customer” that far outweighed any financial impact to Delta. I would absolutely agree with that statement.

Jeff’s presentation didn’t show the full details on “how the bean counters” determined the $150M value, for the combined airline, but I am personally not surprised by that number at all. Maybe I have too much faith in what was stated, but it does have a monetary value that can be associated with it. If it didn't have a real number, then one would have to ask, "if it isn’t generating real revenue or reducing incremental costs for AA, UA, CO and others, why don’t they simply expand their program to offer unlimited upgrades for all levels of their elite program and match Delta?"

Hope that my clarification helps. There were 60 other sets of ears in the room, so please chime in and correct me if I mistated anything.
Only correction I have is that both CO and US give all elites (low-tier to top-tier) free upgrades on all North America (save Hawaii) flights. For comparison sake, AA will give free upgrades to all ExPlats as well Gold/Plats on Ys, and UA will only give free upgrades on Y/B - doesn't matter if you're Global Services or Premier, no instruments=no upgrade.

My guess is they figured as to the $150m figure, it would be based on a combination of people buying First Class fares more (rather than use an instrument to upgrade) or by selling the e500s. Those e500s aren't cheap - they're around $200 for a set of 4 - it's a big revenue stream, especially since you only get 4 per 10,000 miles - on a transcon, you'd need to top-off the account, so it's either fly another 10k miles, or pay for the certs. Either way, it's another opportunity for them to either sell that F seat, or to get another person to pay up for the certs package.
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