It certainly seems that they are holding back on confirming 500-mile upgrades. It's a rarity now to receive confirmation at the relevant (72 hour in my case) upgrade window. I'm waiting for confirmation for MIA-MEX on Thursday. Less than 48 hours to flight time with J7 D4 and only 4 seats showing as occupied yet still waiting. Are there still a lot of people clearing at their upgrade window or has this become nothing more than a hollow marketing ploy?