Originally Posted by
frugalsc
As you all are aware that there's a non-refundable fee that I need to pay in addition to the miles if I want to us my miles to upgrade. So I would like to know ahead of time what my chances are of actually getting an upgrade before I book my flight, arm with this information I might choose book my flight at a specific Fare Class (Y, H, or K/M) to minimize my service fee.
So ideally, this site will tell my chances if I put in, a time frame of my travel, from/to destination and my chances of getting upgrade or a capacity seating chart showing empty business/first class seats at takeoff.
First, I'm pretty sure that the fee will be refunded if your upgrade is not cleared from the waitlist, assuming you are placed on a waitlist because there is no upgrade capacity at time of booking. In that situation, the fee becomes non-refundable only once the upgrade is granted.
Second, for people here to give you assistance, you will likely have to provide a little more detail about your travel plans. You listed many of the relevant variables, destination/time frame are key to any analysis. If you feel like doing some of the leg-work yourself, the pda website has pretty decent information and you can track a specific route to see upgrade patterns.
http://pda.continental.com/PDA20/default.aspx
Good luck!