Study: Odds of Catching COVID-19 From Flying 1-in-27 Million
Joe Cortez October 08, 2020
A new study from the International Air Transport Association suggests the actual odds of contracting COVID-19 aboard an aircraft is significantly low. With 44 documented cases of potential novel Coronavirus infections compared to 1.2 billion flyers throughout 2020, the data suggests the odds of actually contracting an infection is significantly smaller than first believed.
Using factual data from actual airline operations throughout the year, the International Air Transportation Association (IATA) now suggests the actual odds of contracting COVID- 19 are significantly smaller than first believed. When face coverings and HEPA filtration is used, the chances of getting an infection could be as small as one-in-27 million.
IATA Study Based on 2020 Data, Aligned with Peer-Reviewed Study
To come up with the numbers, the IATA looked at actual flight operations in 2020, studies from the three major aircraft manufacturers, and a peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Travel Medicine. At the time of their study, an estimated 1.2 billion travelers had flown aboard a commercial flight across the world. Of them, only 44 cases of COVID-19 were directly traced to being on a flight. Based on those numbers, the study reached the conclusion of the extremely low odds.
“We recognize that this may be an underestimate but even if 90% of the cases were un-reported, it would be one case for every 2.7 million travelers. We think these figures are extremely reassuring,”: Dr. David Powell, medical advisor to IATA, said in a statement. “Furthermore, the vast majority of published cases occurred before the wearing of face coverings inflight became widespread.”
These findings were echoed through independent studies conducted by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. The Airbus study found that compared to an indoor space, an aircraft cabin was a much safer environment due to constant air recycling and mandated face coverings. The findings from similar studies and setups by Boeing and Embraer confirmed that aircraft may be safer than other indoor facilities.
Finally, the peer-reviewed study published by the Journal of Travel Medicine suggests that through a review of known COVID-19 cases caught from air travel, it is significantly reduced compared to cases on other means of travel. However, the researchers note that because the opportunity to complete rigorous studies is very limited, much more research is required to offer definitive evidence on the spread of COVID-19.
New Studies Reduce Overall Risk of COVID-19 Cases
The latest evidence from IATA offers the most optimism for airlines and flyers, as previous studies suggested that the odds of contracting may be higher. A preliminary model from a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggested flyers could have a one-in-4,300 chance of contracting COVID-19 from a flight, while the Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that wearing a face covering while aboard an aircraft could reduce the danger further.
I did fly a few times during the pandemic - most recently on Sun after Thanksgiving to Mexico for a short leisure trip. I did feel very safe because everyone was wearing masks and planes were not very full, Also, upgrades did clear well in advance - that was nice. So if you walk to the gate at 20 min before the departure and take the first row seats with your spouse then the only other person you got exposed to is the flight attendant who serves you drinks in F. The planes are clean and everyone is using hand sanitizer. You have far better chances of getting Covid when visiting your local supermarket than flying. My 85 year old mother is from Eastern Europe. In August she decided to visit her homeland (and I was never successful in arguing with my mother). She did go by taking TK through Istanbul (the only airline that is flying reliably) and then returned to US few months later. Yes, she is 100% fine. The major challenge of her trip was ever changing air travel schedule. But if you feel different about travel, just keep watching CNN from your basement.
@apwood. Thanks, very informtive. Clearly, the 1 in 27 million risk applies only to people born yesterday and is thus entirely plausible, since few of those will hav been airline passengers on their second day.
When I first read this report, I gave a big sigh of relief, maybe now I can fly again. I really want to. But then reality struck home. Sadly, this has to be a case of the industry promoting their own interests by misusing statistics. It’s an example of ‘lies, lies and damned statistics”. How can 1 in 27 million be an accurate reflection of risk during peak coronavirus periods, when in the UK during the summer (after cases had reduced in numbers), there were 1 in 400 people infected, So if that 1 in 400 in a reasonable approximation of infection rates, then 67.500 passengers infected with covid only managed to pass it on to 1 extra passenger, despite being in close contact for hours at a time? Pull the other one, it’s got bells on! How can 1 in 27 million be an accurate reflection of risk, when a single short flight from Zante to UK with had 7 passengers who were infected when they boarded, and ultimately 16 fellow passengers were found to be infected probably as a result. So that 1 in 27 million suggest that, on this Zante flight there several people beat the odds of millions to 1 all on the same flight!? Most passengers were wearing masks too. Pull the other one, it’s got bells on. How can 1 in 27 millions be an accurate reflection or risk, when a study found that a single passenger infected 15 others on a flight from London to Hanoi, Vietnam. This person beat the 1 in 27 million odds 15 times over!! If that’s true, then I want to know their secret, on that basis, they could win the lottery every day with ease! Pull the other one, it’s got bells on. The study needed to be conducted looking solely at flight between centres with moderate or peak levels of cases, when the flights were following covid-guidelines. If they did that instead of picking and choosing such a wide sample base, they might have produced statistics that had some validity in the real world. I’m sorry, but the industry or not telling us the truth. As many scientists and other studies have shown, there is a significant risk from flying, especially on long-haul flights. One in 27 mililon? Do they think their passengers were all born yesterday?
As strange as it is, COVID, which should be a scientific issue, has become a political issue in the U.S. Gallup just posted some extensive polling data from late September, I believe that shows there is a huge gap between self-identified Democrats and Republicans (I guess they didn't use "left" and "right" because voter registration and voting trends are easier for people when self identifying). In general, Dems are more far more fearful of COVID, and are in favor of continued strong restrictions. Conversely, the majority of those who identify as being GOP want to have a mostly return to normal and don't have strong fears in general about the virus. The other interesting breakdown was within the two groups, women were slightly more fearful than the men, regardless of party identification. The funny thing in my anecdotal conversations, which have been many, is that both sides cite scientific studies, data, reports, etc. that support their confirmation bias. In the words of Bob Welch (Fleetwood Mac) "We both can't be wrong, I must be right."
OMG! After 71 flights I have a better chance of living to be 100 than having a politician not lie to me.