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Scientists Disagree with IMO’s Decision to Raise Aviation Alert for Volcano

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The Aviation Alert for Iceland’s Bárðarbunga volcano was briefly raised from orange to red over the weekend, a decision some researchers have called into question.

Citing a “small lava-eruption under the Dyngjujökull glacier,” the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) raised the Aviation Alert for the Bárðarbunga volcano from orange to a red on Saturday.

A red alert is the highest on the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) color alert system. It indicates that an “eruption is imminent or in progress — significant emission of ash into atmosphere likely.” Not all experts, however, agreed with the IMO’s concerns for aviation.

“The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun,” Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, a professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland, told the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV). Gudmundsson was part of a group of scientists who surveyed the Bárðarbunga volcano from an Icelandic Coastguard surveillance plane following the IMO’s report of an eruption.

“We surveyed the glacier for three hours today,” Gudmundsson said. “I can of course not assert that nothing has happened, but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption.”

On Sunday, the IMO downgraded the aviation threat level posed by the Bárðarbunga volcano from red to orange, but warned, “There are no indications that the intensity of the activity is declining.” At least one possible scenario projected by the IMO predicts “explosive, ash-producing activity.”

Given the disagreement among experts and the ever-changing seismic activity surrounding the volcano, the best way to figure out what’s going on with the Bárðarbunga volcano might just be to see it for oneself. A live, RUV-provided feed of the volcano can be viewed here.

[Photo: iStock]

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