Report: 7.2 Billion Passengers to Be in the Air by 2035
Joe Cortez October 19, 2016
IATA projects China, United States to drive increases in air passenger traffic over the next 20 years.
More American and Chinese flyers could be taking to the skies over the next 20 years if trade protectionism does not drive barriers in the travel industry. In the latest update of the International Air Travel Association (IATA) 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, the trade group projects double the number of passengers expected to travel in 2016 could be in the air by the end of 2035.
“People want to fly,” Alexandre de Juniac, director general and CEO of IATA, said in a statement. “Enabling people and nations to trade, explore, and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place.”
China, the United States and India are expected to experience the most market growth by 2035. According to projections released by the IATA, nearly 1.3 billion Chinese passengers could take to the skies by the end of 2035, making the Asian nation the world’s largest aviation market. The United States is expected to come in a close second for growth, with 1.2 billion passengers expected to fly by the end of 2035.
The rise of an Indian middle class is expected to drive air traffic from the south Asian nation by over 400 percent in the next 20 years. If the projection holds true, India will lead a trend of increased passenger traffic from developing nations. Throughout the last 10 years, the IATA reports market share from developing nations has increased from 24 percent to just under 40 percent.
However, IATA warns the projection could be decreased if air travel regulations and trade protectionism between nations is increased. If nations increase trade protectionism and increase arrival and visa regulations, the rate of growth could slow down, reducing the projection by nearly two billion passengers.
The IATA 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast was created in conjunction with Oxford Economics and is updated twice every year. In the October 2015 forecast, the IATA called for an annual growth rate of 4.1 percent, with around 7 billion passengers expected to fly in 2034.
[Photo: IATA]
Flying where?, every "tourist" attraction in the world that will be over-run and over-priced by tens of thousands visiting daily ? I can just picture 1000 people standing on line to go up the Eiffel Tower at $100 a clip. Thankfully, by that time I'll be 85 years old; my traveling days will be probably be over and there will be no place to avoid the thundering herds.