Amid Continued Pandemic Worries, Fall Airfare Primed to Drop

With a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic gripping the United States and booking numbers dropping, flyers may be able to snag airfare deals into the fall and winter. Flight tracking software Hopper expects tickets to drop by as much as 10% in September, before taking a sharp rise in December.

Flyers looking to save money on airfare may be best served booking in September 2021, before prices begin to rise for the holiday season. Airfare tracking app Hopper predicts flight prices may drop by up to 10 percent into the month, followed by an 11 percent increase into November and December.

Seasonal Travel Demand, COVID-19 Delta Variant and Seating Capacity Create Concerns

Looking forward into fall, the company believes there are three specific factors which could keep airfare low through September. With the Labor Day holiday marking the unofficial end to summer, airlines are entering the “fall shoulder season.” As a result, airlines are seeing fewer leisure passengers. Considering business travel has not yet returned, airlines may lower fares to attract flyers.

In addition, continued fears of the COVID-19 Delta variant could affect overall demand. With the European Commission recommending closing borders to entrants from the United States, international airfare is still predicted to be depressed for the foreseeable future. Within the U.S., the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center notes that cases are on a sharp rise, with 40 million confirmed cases since January 2020. Some of the most popular destinations have become hotbeds for infections: Los Angeles has over 1.4 million confirmed cases, Miami-Dade County in Florida reports over 639,000 cases, while Dallas has over 357,000 cases.

Finally, airlines are slowly returning to full capacity, meaning more seats will be available to fly. According to OAG, capacity was only down by 11 percent compared to 2019 in July. With an influx of seats available, airlines may be lowering airfare to keep aircraft flying at capacity.

Despite factors aligning to the benefit of flyers, there are two key threats to the low pricing environment. Pent-up travel demand from 2020, combined with the rising cost of aircraft fuel, could drive up prices on certain routes.

Booking Demand Still Lower Compared to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Even though prices are primed to drop, ticketing remains soft for the year. According to the latest airfare booking data from Bank of America, sales for the week ending August 29, 2021 were off by 51.9 percent compared to the same period in 2019.

Feature image courtesy: RussellHarryLee via Flickr (CC-BY-2.0)