A4A: Brace Yourself, Summer Is Coming & It’s Going to Be a Busy One

Summer 2015 could see the highest number of U.S. flyers ever, according to a projection from Airlines for America.

If a projection by Airlines for America (A4A) comes to fruition, frequent flyers across the U.S. are in for packed flights and longer lines at the airport this summer. The airline trade organization released its quarterly projection for Summer 2015 today, predicting this summer will be the busiest in recent history.

“The continued rise in U.S. consumer sentiment and employment is leading to more people traveling more often,” said John Heimlich, vice president and chief economist at A4A. “Air travel remains one of the best consumer bargains in America.”

A4A projects approximately 222 million passengers will fly on American airlines between June 1 and August 31. This translates down to 2.4 million flyers per day, with the majority of those flying within the U.S. When combined with an expected 31 million international travelers, this summer is set to be the busiest on record since the 2008 – 2009 recession.

In order to accommodate more travelers, airlines are adding larger aircraft to fly domestic routes. Small regional jets are expected to go by the wayside in favor of larger jets that can handle the influx of more flyers. According to Heimlich, the average domestic aircraft size is around 106 seats, with more airports seeing increased service across the U.S.

“There was a period, post recession, where almost every airport got hit [with service cuts], but I think that’s turning around now,” Heimlich said on a media briefing call Monday. “Lately we’ve seen growth all across the spectrum…and at the spectrum of airports.”

The biggest destinations for domestic flyers continue to be America’s largest metropolitan areas. New York City, Los Angeles and Denver are the top three domestic destinations, respectively. However, American airlines are bracing for more demand on international flights as well. Airlines are expecting to add over 1,000 daily seats on flights Mexico, the U.K., China and the UAE this summer.

Although demand remains strong, flyers can expect to pay the same for flights throughout the summer months. According to Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC), flight prices won’t raise much domestically, with a slight drop on fares from the U.S. to Europe.

“We’re seeing fares fall to Europe from the U.S. this summer chiefly because there’s been a 6 percent rise in available seats,” said Chuck Thackston, managing director at ARC. “Airlines are competing to fill those additional seats.”

While the report is good news for the airlines, it isn’t entirely smooth sailing for flyers. Heimlich warns that there are concerns to the projection, including weather, fuel costs, and select international destinations.

“One thing you always have a summer risk of is convective weather,” said Heimlich. “The airlines, thanks to their investments, are as well prepared as they can be.”

In addition, there may not be a best day to travel this summer. According to Heimlich, 13 of the 15 busiest air travel days come during the summer travel period. However, despite the increase in business, flight performance has increased through the first quarter of 2015, with more flight arriving on time, with less lost luggage and involuntary boarding denials.

A4A has compiled the data in an infographic which can be found here.