Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Discontinued Programs/Partners > US Airways | Dividend Miles (Pre-Consolidation with American Airlines)
Reload this Page >

US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

View Poll Results: Is an American Airlines/US Airways merger good for the traveling public?
Yes
84
28.19%
No
214
71.81%
Voters: 298. You may not vote on this poll

Old Nov 12, 2013, 2:24 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Note:

There is an existing thread in the AA forum that may be useful to US and AA Flyertalkers:
US-AA Merger: Just the Facts thread

As facts become posted, that should be the place to look.

Merger discussion, speculation, and other questions can be directed here, or the similar thread in the AA forum:
MERGER: US and AA 9 Dec 2013 and implications for AA flyers (new)

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated, and now closed to new posts)
Print Wikipost

US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

 
Old Aug 26, 2013, 7:57 pm
  #1576  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by GNRMatt
You and others have mentioned this in this thread. Again, this statement has absolutely zero meaning if you cannot provide a link to reference this. What wall street and airline industry insiders have said that the airlines will win their case against the DoJ? If there are so many experts in this field who have expressed this opinion, it should be easy to cite your source.

If you're going to make statements like this, please back it up citing specific references for everyone to read. Otherwise, your opinion on this has as much meaning as any random anonymous internet person.
http://www.planebuzz.com/?p=2957

http://airchive.com/blog/2013/08/22/...re-doa-part-i/

http://airchive.com/blog/2013/08/25/...e-doa-part-ii/

http://crankyflier.com/2013/08/23/to...delay-tactics/

http://crankyflier.com/2013/08/20/th...es-big-gamble/

http://beta.fool.com/titans8904/2013...gyholnk0000001

There are tons more.
I haven't seen one article or insider who has said the doj has a rock solid case. Other then this site and a few know-it-alls. You as well as others obviously feel entitled to something, fine. But don't sit here and spout of things that go much deeper than a "what the doj did with att and tmobile" type of cases. This isn't the first time this has happened and it won't be the last.
Kootur is offline  
Old Aug 26, 2013, 8:45 pm
  #1577  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: in the vicinity of SFO
Programs: AA 2MM (LT-PLT, PPro for this year)
Posts: 19,781
Originally Posted by Kootur
There are tons more.
I haven't seen one article or insider who has said the doj has a rock solid case. Other then this site and a few know-it-alls. You as well as others obviously feel entitled to something, fine. But don't sit here and spout of things that go much deeper than a "what the doj did with att and tmobile" type of cases. This isn't the first time this has happened and it won't be the last.
Well, at least some useful secondary sources, and thank you for posting the links.
nkedel is offline  
Old Aug 26, 2013, 8:45 pm
  #1578  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by Kootur
http://www.planebuzz.com/?p=2957

http://airchive.com/blog/2013/08/22/...re-doa-part-i/

http://airchive.com/blog/2013/08/25/...e-doa-part-ii/

http://crankyflier.com/2013/08/23/to...delay-tactics/

http://crankyflier.com/2013/08/20/th...es-big-gamble/

http://beta.fool.com/titans8904/2013...gyholnk0000001

There are tons more.
I haven't seen one article or insider who has said the doj has a rock solid case. Other then this site and a few know-it-alls. You as well as others obviously feel entitled to something, fine. But don't sit here and spout of things that go much deeper than a "what the doj did with att and tmobile" type of cases. This isn't the first time this has happened and it won't be the last.
That's primarily because while Holly Hegeman and Brett Snyder know the airline industry, they don't know jack about antitrust law. From reading many posts here and elsewhere, very few people understand Section 7 of the Clayton Act.

Speaking of Holly, that dingbat wrote the other day that Horton's stand-alone plan called for 20% annual growth. If she had written it once, I'd let it slide as perhaps a typo. But she repeated it more than once in her column, demonstrating that she doesn't even know enough of Horton's stand-alone plan to even comment on it intelligently. Remember that old saying about opening one's mouth and removing all doubt? Her ignorance is on display for all to read.

And Brett? As interesting as Cranky is to read, he worked for America West as a pricing intern (among other jobs). He's never worked for the Antitrust Division of the Dep't of Justice, and it shows. He's no more competent to comment intelligently about an antitrust complaint (or the odds that the government will win) as he is to perform heart surgery.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Aug 26, 2013, 8:49 pm
  #1579  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by FWAAA
That's primarily because while Holly Hegeman and Brett Snyder know the airline industry, they don't know jack about antitrust law. From reading many posts here and elsewhere, very few people understand Section 7 of the Clayton Act.

Speaking of Holly, that dingbat wrote the other day that Horton's stand-alone plan called for 20% annual growth. If she had written it once, I'd let it slide as perhaps a typo. But she repeated it more than once in her column, demonstrating that she doesn't even know enough of Horton's stand-alone plan to even comment on it intelligently. Remember that old saying about opening one's mouth and removing all doubt? Her ignorance is on display for all to read.

And Brett? As interesting as Cranky is to read, he worked for America West as a pricing intern (among other jobs). He's never worked for the Antitrust Division of the Dep't of Justice, and it shows. He's no more competent to comment intelligently about an antitrust complaint (or the odds that the government will win) as he is to perform heart surgery.
Will the complaint hold up in court. Experts say in the airline industry say no.
If the doj could prove that without a doubt their data showed this than yes they could win. But their data has been shown to be flawed.

I don't know what holly was thinking but I'm pretty sure that she knows that AA can't double it's size in 5 years. Either way, hortons stand alone plan would have added excess capacity to the market and any gains in pricing would have been lost. If the merger for some reason doesn't happen I don't think anyone will sign off on an organic growth plan. That suicide for any airline.
Kootur is offline  
Old Aug 26, 2013, 9:07 pm
  #1580  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by Kootur
This merger is almost past the point of no return. US sold their company HQ in Tempe. Most of AA's former leadership has moved on as they were told they would not be a part of this new company. Gates have already been combined. USairs 330's coming this year have the new american branding in them. US has stopped selling codes on UA flight and has changed it's flight numbers to mirror AAs.
This one is really hilarious! Your post implies that US sold its headquarters building, but that's not accurate. One REIT sold its ownership interest in the Tempe HQ to another REIT earlier this year. US continues to own the 25% interest that it's always owned.

If Parker has actually jumped the gun as you allege, that just demonstrates his abject stupidity. None of it's relevant to antitrust law and whether the merger will be permitted.

Originally Posted by Kootur
Not to mention all the sensitive company info that has already been passed around. The merger for all purposes has already been completed the only left to do is flip the switch.
Again, irrelevant. If the government can show that the merger violates section 7, the merger won't happen.

Originally Posted by Kootur
Will the complaint hold up in court. Experts say in the airline industry say no.
If the doj could prove that without a doubt their data showed this than yes they could win. But their data has been shown to be flawed.
"Without a doubt?" Sorry, sport, this isn't a criminal case; it's a civil case. "More likely than not," not "beyond a reasonable doubt."

See, it's ignorance of the legal system like I've pointed out that run rampant among pilots and various industry insider bloggers. As I've said - they know the airline industry. Collectively, they're as ignorant about antitrust law as the vast majority of Americans.

Originally Posted by Kootur
I don't know what holly was thinking but I'm pretty sure that she knows that AA can't double it's size in 5 years. Either way, hortons stand alone plan would have added excess capacity to the market and any gains in pricing would have been lost. If the merger for some reason doesn't happen I don't think anyone will sign off on an organic growth plan. That suicide for any airline.
20% growth over five years (the actual plan, not Holly Hegeman's ignorant rantings) equates to a mere 3.7% per year for five years.

And whether that growth is possible or whether it would fatally destabilize the industry is wholly irrelevant to the Section 7 analysis. If the merger violates the law (and it just might), then nothing that Hegeman or Snyder or any other Wall St analyst or blogger has written changes that.

We get it - you desparately want the merger to occur. The positive impact on pilots' W-2s is very clear.

IMO, the merger is dead. Finished. Over.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 12:07 am
  #1581  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: in the vicinity of SFO
Programs: AA 2MM (LT-PLT, PPro for this year)
Posts: 19,781
Originally Posted by FWAAA
IMO, the merger is dead. Finished. Over.
From your lips (....errr, keyboard?) to God's ears.

I'm not prepared to call anything over until the fat lady sings; people were treating the merger as fait acompli up to the DOJ news, and I think it' s premature to make the assumption that it definitely is dead.

OTOH, if I had to put money on it (beyond the 90 shares of AAMRQ I rode nearly to zero pre-BKR, and which I've just never bothered to take the tax loss on) I sure wouldn't be betting on the merger being saved.
nkedel is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 12:19 am
  #1582  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 139
Originally Posted by nkedel
I'm not prepared to call anything over until the fat lady sings
You mean like this?

American Airlines-US Airways Merger: Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings

DCann is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 12:56 am
  #1583  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 6,407
Originally Posted by FWAAA
See, it's ignorance of the legal system like I've pointed out that run rampant among pilots and various industry insider bloggers. As I've said - they know the airline industry. Collectively, they're as ignorant about antitrust law as the vast majority of Americans.
But look how knowledgeable the vast majority of FT posters are.

For example how many legal analysts realize a key insight repeatedly posted here (and in the AA thread): that the DL/NW and UA/CO mergers prove this merger is legal?
Originally Posted by FWAAA
IMO, the merger is dead. Finished. Over.
Perhaps US and AA are waiting to concede major points in negotiations with the DOJ. Perhaps the trial will magically start in three months. Perhaps the judge loves US. Perhaps US and AA will run themselves into the ground during trial, then invoke the failing company defense.
richarddd is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 2:11 am
  #1584  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: in the vicinity of SFO
Programs: AA 2MM (LT-PLT, PPro for this year)
Posts: 19,781
Originally Posted by DCann
Yeah, exactly.
nkedel is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 8:50 am
  #1585  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: BWI
Programs: AA Gold, HH Diamond, National Emerald Executive, TSA Disparager Gold
Posts: 15,180
Originally Posted by starflyer
I have to believe this was intended as sarcasm. Maybe US frequent flyers are overjoyed at the prospects of a merger as their program is rather uncompetitive (except perhaps for Star Alliance awards that would disappear). I would think all AA frequent flyers should be quite scared at the reduction in benefits expected if Doug Parker and team take over.
It's not that uncompetitive when compared with UA. UA gives a slight bit more in terms of confirmed regional upgrades and SWUs, but they're also difficult to use, and the SWUs have to be bought in W or above to even play that lottery.

US is much better for upgrades as they won't sell them out from under their elites, but their F product isn't as good as UA's (not that UA's is stellar).

US may be a bit stingy with their metal, but as long as I can book *A awards using UA's metal for about the same price as using UA miles, I can deal with it.

Had you compared it to UA of a few years ago, I absolutely would have agreed. Now, not so much as many of UA's benefits are only on paper and are difficult to use in the real world. Compare all the other benefits, like baggage, lounge access, priority, etc, and you'll find them to be about the same.
Superguy is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 9:28 am
  #1586  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,945
When people say one domestic's F product isn't as good as another carrier's, what exactly are we comparing? Leaving the lie-flat JFK-SFO/LAX options out of the mix, I'm not even sure that I can differentiate. US doesn't serve meals on a lot of flights but that's about it. Beyond that, UA has some in-seat power, but the seat itself on the 737-900 I sat in a month ago was hard as a rock compared to the US F seat. Honestly, of US, UA and DL F products (never flew AA F), I'd have a really hard time differentiating on things that actually matter. And to me what matters is having more personal space on the plane.
PWMTrav is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 11:11 am
  #1587  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: The views I express here are not necessarily supported by any airline or codeshare partners, nor do I represent their views and/or opinions. They are my own OPINIONS dont like them dont read them.....
Posts: 1,615
Originally Posted by FWAAA

IMO, the merger is dead. Finished. Over.
You have been outspoken about your hatred of this merger and DP for a long time. I just hope and pray IF you are correct...and I think you and the DOJ will be made fools of...your trip back to the judge will not be as painful as I can PROMISE it WILL be. If you honestly think starting all over is going to be equal in cuts or better, I have a piece of land in the everglades that will perk. Your management that will guide you will throw a rescaled Chapter 11 with their attorneys and will DESTROY YOU!! It is the judges place to save a company and if the company feels they need more cuts, they WILL get it! You really think all those AB's will come your way without it being paid by labor? OR scaled back? And your few profits will mean nothing. Get ready to shrink or spend and go back to Chapter 11 within a year.

Meanwhile, US Airways will be fine. We have had greater people hating on US than you for YEARS. We are use to it and could care less. Good luck!
flight62 is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 11:25 am
  #1588  
In Memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Benicia CA
Programs: Alaska MVP Gold 75K, AA 3.8MM, UA 1.1MM, enjoying the retired life
Posts: 31,849
Originally Posted by flight62
Your management that will guide you will throw a rescaled Chapter 11 with their attorneys and will DESTROY YOU!!
I'm getting the impression you think FWAAA is an AA employee? I don't think he's managed by anyone at AA but he is well respected by many of us that have seen his posts here over the years.

Doesn't AA have $7 billion cash on hand and a profit of over $200 million just last month? Does that really lead them back into bankruptcy within a year if they go solo and exit?
tom911 is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 11:52 am
  #1589  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by flight62
You have been outspoken about your hatred of this merger and DP for a long time. I just hope and pray IF you are correct...and I think you and the DOJ will be made fools of...your trip back to the judge will not be as painful as I can PROMISE it WILL be. If you honestly think starting all over is going to be equal in cuts or better, I have a piece of land in the everglades that will perk. Your management that will guide you will throw a rescaled Chapter 11 with their attorneys and will DESTROY YOU!! It is the judges place to save a company and if the company feels they need more cuts, they WILL get it! You really think all those AB's will come your way without it being paid by labor? OR scaled back? And your few profits will mean nothing. Get ready to shrink or spend and go back to Chapter 11 within a year.


Thanks for the morning chuckle! I needed that.

tom911 is correct - I don't work for AMR or any of its subsidiaries.

Originally Posted by flight62
Meanwhile, US Airways will be fine. We have had greater people hating on US than you for YEARS. We are use to it and could care less. Good luck!
I'm certain that US will be fine without AA. Doug Parker, your esteemed CEO, has said it repeatedly.

Best of luck to you and everyone else at US.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2013, 12:03 pm
  #1590  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by flight62
You have been outspoken about your hatred of this merger and DP for a long time. I just hope and pray IF you are correct...and I think you and the DOJ will be made fools of...your trip back to the judge will not be as painful as I can PROMISE it WILL be. If you honestly think starting all over is going to be equal in cuts or better, I have a piece of land in the everglades that will perk. Your management that will guide you will throw a rescaled Chapter 11 with their attorneys and will DESTROY YOU!! It is the judges place to save a company and if the company feels they need more cuts, they WILL get it! You really think all those AB's will come your way without it being paid by labor? OR scaled back? And your few profits will mean nothing. Get ready to shrink or spend and go back to Chapter 11 within a year.

Meanwhile, US Airways will be fine. We have had greater people hating on US than you for YEARS. We are use to it and could care less. Good luck!
There isn't anyone at AA other than horton that is or was against a merger.
Kootur is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.