Is there a method to the madness of US dropping the points needed last-minute?

GblTrvlr · Aug 21, 12, 9:20 am

I've been checking the award seats for Envoy for the past few weeks multiple times per day/night. The number of points they require appears to drop as the dates get nearer, which makes sense - if they don't think they are going to fill the seats they seem to drop the price (in terms of the miles necessary).

Thus, while most of the calendar was full of 100,000 and 175,000 seats (each way!) they seem to drop down to 50,000 as the dates get closer.

However, at times there does not appear to be any rhyme or reason to the changes! Yes, the next 4-5 days always seems to drop down to 50k, but some dates will go from 175k down to 100k, down to 50k, then back to 175k -- all without the actual "number of seats filled" changing! I don't understand this part.

It really does seem random at times!

They seem to keep the weekends at 175k for as long as possible, even when they are only a week or two away with only a few seats taken. However, the weekdays often drop to 50k fairly quickly, but I cannot figure out if there's any pattern to these changes?

My dilemma, is that I'm booked on an award ticket for PHL-CLT-MAD for Envoy this Wednesday (using 100k total, 50k each direction), but hoping to switch my outbound to get on an A330-200 and direct routing (PHL-MAD) on fly on Thursday.

I'm also on the same PHL-CLT-MAD coming back, but hoping to switch to the direct flight on the return as well (especially since my spouse is already on that return flight!).

My outbound is available but my return date is still at 100k - so I'm sort of waiting until it drops to call and change my entire itinerary. I'm happy to pay $150 change fee to get "real" Envoy in the A330-200 on the outbound, but I really hate to have to do this twice on my itinerary (assuming I make the outbound change now and just wait until the return date gets closer and the miles will drop down to 50k).

Thus, my questions are:
1. Any rhyme or reason to the changes they make in these award seats?
2. Given that my original reservation for my outbound is coming up tomorrow, how long can I wait to make the changes to the itinerary before I get into trouble (i.e., they cancel the reservation entirely or something)?

Thanks!

Biggie Fries · Aug 21, 12, 10:22 am

Quote:

Originally Posted by GblTrvlr

I've been checking the award seats for Envoy for the past few weeks multiple times per day/night. The number of points they require appears to drop as the dates get nearer, which makes sense - if they don't think they are going to fill the seats they seem to drop the price (in terms of the miles necessary).

Thus, while most of the calendar was full of 100,000 and 175,000 seats (each way!) they seem to drop down to 50,000 as the dates get closer.

However, at times there does not appear to be any rhyme or reason to the changes! Yes, the next 4-5 days always seems to drop down to 50k, but some dates will go from 175k down to 100k, down to 50k, then back to 175k -- all without the actual "number of seats filled" changing! I don't understand this part.

It really does seem random at times!

They seem to keep the weekends at 175k for as long as possible, even when they are only a week or two away with only a few seats taken. However, the weekdays often drop to 50k fairly quickly, but I cannot figure out if there's any pattern to these changes?

My dilemma, is that I'm booked on an award ticket for PHL-CLT-MAD for Envoy this Wednesday (using 100k total, 50k each direction), but hoping to switch my outbound to get on an A330-200 and direct routing (PHL-MAD) on fly on Thursday.

I'm also on the same PHL-CLT-MAD coming back, but hoping to switch to the direct flight on the return as well (especially since my spouse is already on that return flight!).

My outbound is available but my return date is still at 100k - so I'm sort of waiting until it drops to call and change my entire itinerary. I'm happy to pay $150 change fee to get "real" Envoy in the A330-200 on the outbound, but I really hate to have to do this twice on my itinerary (assuming I make the outbound change now and just wait until the return date gets closer and the miles will drop down to 50k).

Thus, my questions are:
1. Any rhyme or reason to the changes they make in these award seats?
2. Given that my original reservation for my outbound is coming up tomorrow, how long can I wait to make the changes to the itinerary before I get into trouble (i.e., they cancel the reservation entirely or something)?

Thanks!

Wow... what you are doing (checking so much) is very interesting. Frankly, I had no idea that they varied so much this late in the game.

Now that I have acknowledged my near-total ignorance, let me groundlessly speculate: It may be that what you are picking up is the random re-release of various seats previously hoarded by Chairman's Preferred types, who often have fairly high miles (points) available and who do not get charged re-deposit fees when they cancel out an award ticket. In this scenario, I am assuming that US is not doing much re-calibration of seat value -- that if a previously booked (hoarded) seat gets dumped back into the pool, it is made available at its original price. This assumption may be wrong, but I think that the larger conclusion -- that there is no way to really peg the odds for your case -- suggests that you pull the trigger (or not) when you see something you can live with.

GblTrvlr · Aug 22, 12, 7:33 am

Just wanted to document that I checked with the Dividend Miles Team, and they say that I have until Midnight on my original day of departure to cancel or change my flights.

I was worried because I'm holding out for a specific return date and wondering if I didn't take my original flight today (scheduled for 1:45 p.m. departure) that they would just cancel my whole trip when I don't show up at the airport.

Thus, I'm still waiting -until 10 p.m. tonight to see if my return will open up. All the dates around it have now switched to the lowest miles (50k), except for the day I want! It's a little frustrating, but at least I know the rules for changes now.

Still doesn't seem to be any obvious reason for their changes to the miles required for various dates. The day before the one I want was 175k until this morning, but now it dropped to 50k. Quite strange.

Often1 · Aug 22, 12, 9:07 am

US is handling its awards no different from its paid fares. Sometimes it offers great deals at the last minute. Why, because there's greater inventory than it had predicted and the marginal cost of an extra pax is very low once the aircraft is already flying.

It's not necessarily the greatest business model, but it generates cash (and gets miles off the books).

US, like other carriers, uses predictive software which takes into account factors based on past history to predict future sales (& awards). It's an imperfect science.