nlkm9

Hi folks
i travel on usairways weekly--often my appts are cancelled last minute or location is changed and the fees are nuts....
here is my question--I book my flights out several weeks to get best prices--
is it better to wait till 3 weeks ahead? I only fly domestically, but I have been booking 6-8 weeks out and think i need a new strategy--the change fees will be painful still, but if someone cancels 4 weeks out and I havent booked a flight, that would be a plus--
thanks

nlkm9

no advice from anyone???

WiscAZ

There are so many different variables here: the route you're flying, the time of year, what day of the week, what time of day, etc... I've had different results. Sometimes, I can find a cheap flight with short notice and other times it's really high. Maybe you should look into a refundable ticket.

nlkm9

ok, thanks.

teese35

I always wait for tues and wed mornings to do my booking

Venabili

If there was a rule on when to book in order to pay the least, everyone would be booking at that time.

It's a question of luck most of the time -- last minute fares can go very high or drop; fares 6 weeks out can do the same...

Superguy

3-4 weeks seems to be the best general time IME. US tends to charge more further out, then get cheaper as they don't sell the seats. Seemingly backwards of most airlines. That isn't the case all of the time, but it is more often than not.

Refundable fares don't change much. Buy now, buy a day before - it'll pretty much be the same.

YMMV, but that's what I've seen at least.

wetrat0

Let x be the average fare 6 weeks out.
Let y be the average fare 3 weeks out.
Let r be the refundable fare.

Represent the change fee by "c".

Let p be the fraction of meetings canceled between 3 and 6 weeks out, and q be the fraction of meetings canceled less than 3 weeks out. Thus 1-p-q is the fraction of meetings that you actually go to.

Let's assume that you will use the residual value of the ticket eventually.

If you buy 6 weeks out your average cost per booking is x * (1 - p - q) + c * (p + q).
If you buy 3 weeks out your average cost per booking is y * (1 - p - q) + c * q (because you never make the booking if it is canceled between 3-6 weeks out).
If you buy a refundable ticket your average cost per booking is r * (1 - p - q).

So make a spreadsheet and figure out which of these three is the lowest.

dchirsch

Buy the refundable fare 6 weeks out or longer...then keep an eye on the non-refundable fare. If the non-refundable fare stays low as you approach date, then buy it and refund the refundable fare...if it starts shooting up, then stick with what you already bought.

What kills me with the change fee is that even if the fare dropped, that does no good to you, since the $200 is extracted out of a separate pocket...and God forbid you have to make 2 changes...

I have made it a habit to always check the price the day after I buy the ticket, as well. A few times I have seen it drop and, with the 24 hour rule, I have been able to get the difference refunded.

nlkm9

great ideas!!