thepla

I know this is a new route for eVIP/ SWU on AA. I bought "J" for me and coach for Wife and Son. They are wait-listed.

Flights are in November. I'm only one if BC on way home and there are 5 other people on way there.

Since we are not in same reservations their chances are being demoted to regular AA member, I'm EXP. This would seem to be an issue if they are going to wait until very late to open up any seats.

Has anyone had any experience on this route since integration last month?

nachosdelux

my understanding is that PHL-TLV (and back) were the toughest upgrades on the legacy US metal. LOTS of paid business class.

No personal experience, though, other than trying to get a miles award in J last year. (unsuccessful)

Exec_Plat

SHould have bought the wife the biz seat, then you and son would have EXP status and a POSSIBLE CHANCE. As no status the chances for them now are zero.

of course IMO

thepla

I did EXP challenge from UA 1K and only ended up with 7 months for another 65K Points. I needed this BC tickets to get there.

You seem to speaking from experience that this route will wait to last minute and all will be gone. Like I said I'm only one in BC and rest is open. Doesn't AA ever open up SWU upgrades in advance on this route?

morrisunc

I got upgraded tlv-phl with my pastor last month on a Sunday - called on way to airport and two opened up.

scnzzz

Any chance your CK status might have made the difference?

Edit to add: presumably your CK/EXP status bumped you to the top of the queue with your pastor (presumably listed as a companion). I rather doubt OP's family, lacking the same elite status, would have the same fortune.

scnzzz

OP, a few things.
1. Your point about how many people are in the cabin outbound and return - is that based on the seatmap? Because that's a rather unreliable source of how many seats have actually been sold.
2. It's August. Three months out is far too early for most business travelers to be planning travel. My experience is that seats start filling up with business travelers about 20-30 days out.
3. The A330s that AA/US ply on this route are rather premium-light. I'm not sure if it's a 332 or a 333, but even in the best case, there are 28 J seats. That's pretty light, compared to a refurbed 772 with 45 J seats. Heck even the much smaller 763 has 28J seats. So there aren't really *that* many seats

Basically I would concur that the odds of your family clearing are small, in both directions. Sorry but that's the reality of the situation.

Separately, to your question about releasing SWU inventory in advance, why would any carrier do that if they are confident they can sell the seats? Lots of upgrade inventory available in advance means that the route has excess premium capacity. And that's something every carrier is looking to fix.

Exec_Plat

CK=EXP... I expect he cleared due to standard EXP processing.

But EXP versus no status is the difference between being in the top 10 on a list versus 47th.

(And an exp mentioning when they got the nod, without all the other necessary info, is pretty much useless.)

thepla

But if he called on way to airport, unless he called just as they opened up, would have actually been last.

Were there any open seats?

It seems from comments aa only opens seats at last minute. If they open up some now I'd be way better off.

I looked at tomorrow fight and it is g7 according to ef.

FWAAA

You can say that again. PHL-TLV is flown by A330-200s (-300s lack the range), and the -200s have just 20 business seats. That's an intimate business class cabin, and I agree - the odds don't look all that good for the OP's family's upgrades.

The reality is that US doesn't sell very many business class seats across the Atlantic, and gets too little $$ for the ones it does sell. Such is the reality of low-value TATL hubs in PHL and CLT that rely mostly on connecting traffic (due to the paucity of nonstop O&D passengers in those cities, who generally pay higher fares).

AA, on the other hand, has always attracted higher yields and higher unit revenues than US on its TATL flights, as it sells more business class seats and at higher prices. That's behind AA's historic ability to fly TATL flights with larger premium cabins and still have seats available for upgrades. NYC, CHI, MIA, DFW and LAX are cities with far more big $$$ premium cabin buyers.

But since the common narrative (despite its falsehood) is that "AA went bankrupt because (among other things) its premium cabins were just too large," I suspect that AA's future premium cabins will more closely match the very small pmUS business class cabins.

Exec_Plat

What?!?

He may in fact have already been cleared. Are you somehow reading some special meaning into HIS choice of "two opened up"?????

Or do you think that he just happened to ask and they gave him seats that would otherwise have gone to someone else on the list???? That his asking 'jumped the order'???

You should read the thousands of posts on how AA manages domestic and international upgrades.

I am not sure why you are mentioning G7. G is a coach inventory. C is an upgrade from coach to biz.

So, yes- if AA opened all the upgrades today and you and 3 other people are the only ones waiting for a flight in november, then yes that will be good.

As a rule they do not.

As a matter of practice, they wait- on purpose- until they have a well ordered list with most customers on it all sorted by status first and then time of request. They know how many biz seats are truly going to go unsold...they have forced people who want to fly in biz to buy biz... then, in the last days or hours they gradually titrate the last few seats. But keep a few- 4, 6 for last minute full J customers. And then- at the gate, on the way to the airport, a few lucky EXPs get the nod.

IMO this ensures that EXPs, their highly valuable customers who buy expensive fares at the last minute or within weeks can be accommodated.

There is a lot posted on how intl upgrades are cleared ...mostly with other routes. The same principles apply...

AA-Flyer-SAN

My understanding is CKs are processed ahead of EXP (unpublished rule). Tho it's a bloggers article I have seen it in the past

http://www.loungebuddy.com/secret-ai...ltimate-guide/

econometrics

I might be taking a step back in the progress of this thread, but what's the process now on the PMUS metal for SWU's now that post Oct 17th flights are all "AA" flights?

I have a TLV-DFW in early December and I'm wondering how I will be able to upgrade it? Just book it and call to apply the SWU, as usual?

Thanks

duncfly

I fly this route a lot and I have trouble getting a paid seat in business a month out - often. I end up switching to UA EWR.

So, upgrades are rarer than the proverbial hens teeth here.

scnzzz

+1. I would be rather surprised if they were not.