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Old Dec 10, 12, 10:20 pm   #1
 
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The roadblock is gone vs. November 2012 Traffic...

well the Nov 2012 traffic report is out...

UAL PRASM down (1-2%), mainline down (1.5% to 2.5%), traffic down (2.3%), capacity down (2.6%). So even with a .3% higher load they still lost major PRASM. (PRASM factoring higher load was down (1.3% to 2.3%, mainline by 1.8% to 2.8%)) On time was 82.6%

DL PRASM was up 2.5%, and they were at 90.6% OT (their 8K had no capacity/traffic numbers).

AA PRASM was down (2.3%), and their load fell by (1.2%). I have been told that this figure is just mainline. If so adjusting for load issues AA's mainline PRASM was down (1.2%).

I see little sign in these numbers that (other than AA stumbling as expected) high value fliers are coming back to UA. It is shaping up to be a very bad quarter.
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Old Dec 10, 12, 10:53 pm   #2
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Originally Posted by spin88 View Post
It is shaping up to be a very bad quarter.
Bad quarter? Try bad year.

What do you think the excuse will be for Q4? Fiscal cilff fears dampening lucrative holiday ticket sales? The threat of taxing the ultra-rich must really be hurting BusinessFirst sales.
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Old Dec 10, 12, 11:06 pm   #3
 
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Originally Posted by channa View Post
Bad quarter? Try bad year.

What do you think the excuse will be for Q4? Fiscal cilff fears dampening lucrative holiday ticket sales? The threat of taxing the ultra-rich must really be hurting BusinessFirst sales.
I'm sure this will be Excuse #1: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...21210?irpc=932

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Old Dec 10, 12, 11:19 pm   #4
 
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Originally Posted by XLR26 View Post
Agree that will be the excuse. Somehow sandy impacted UA but not DL's numbers.
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Old Dec 10, 12, 11:30 pm   #5
 
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UA is running a sloppy airline. It's gonna catch up with them at some point.
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Old Dec 11, 12, 12:22 am   #6
 
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UAL November 2012 traffic

Interesting comparison between these two giants:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100297475 UAL

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/12/10/504...-november.html AA

Comparing the results of the two companies so far this year, it is odd that the company that is currently in bankruptcy is doing so well compared to the other company that has changed how passenger loyalty should be recognized.

It is also interesting to note that both companies experienced Super storm Sandy yet UA blames the storm for twice the amount claimed by AA. Estimates are estimates. Results are quite another thing.
-
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Old Dec 11, 12, 12:36 am   #7
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Originally Posted by dgcpaphd View Post
It is also interesting to note that both companies experienced Super storm Sandy yet UA blames the storm for twice the amount claimed by AA. Estimates are estimates. Results are quite another thing.
-
To be fair, the EWR operation of UA/CO is about twice the size of AA's LGA and JFK operations combined, so perhaps UA did suffer double the harm due to Sandy.
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Old Dec 11, 12, 12:43 am   #8
 
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Surely Jeff will not say downgrading benefits for elite flyers has any impact. His response will surely be that as more of the new Dreamliners come into the fleet, the elite flyers will come running back. Yes, that's it - the delay of the Dreamliners entering the fleet.
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Old Dec 11, 12, 5:46 am   #9
 
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UA up 6% on OnTime percentage in November - includes Sandy!!

Well done.
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Old Dec 11, 12, 7:01 am   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spin88 View Post
DL PRASM was up 2.5%, and they were at 90.6% OT (their 8K had no capacity/traffic numbers).
Delta's press release from 12/4 offered traffic (systemwide RPM up 1.2%) and capacity (ASM down 0.2%) data.

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1793
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Old Dec 11, 12, 7:09 am   #11
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Originally Posted by LaserSailor View Post
UA up 6% on OnTime percentage in November - includes Sandy!!

Well done.
While the on-time performance is up, UA's relative performance to the competition is still near the bottom. With the exception of AA (which had its share of issues), UA was below its competitors in terms of on-time in November.

Hardly a job well done.
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Last edited by iluv2fly; Dec 11, 12 at 7:49 am.. Reason: response to deleted post
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Old Dec 11, 12, 7:15 am   #12
 
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From:

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/8834...rops-at-united

"We expect the company to benefit from industry leading growth momentum, strong execution, competitive cost-structure, as well as fleet and network optimization. Other positives for United Continental include active hedging strategies and a strong liquidity position.

However, we expect these aspects to be overshadowed by the concerns over escalating fuel prices, rising non-fuel expense, competitive threats, new advertising policy, unionized workforce and a sluggish global economy that might limit the upside potential of the stock."

Industry leading growth momentum?

Strong execution? Really???

This looks like a piece written by $mi$ek himself!

Anyone know what the "new advertising policy" is?

I think "rising non fuel expense" is a codeword for "cost of SHARES debacles"
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Old Dec 11, 12, 7:19 am   #13
 
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Call me lucky, but overall, I've had a really good experience with UA. This only my second full year flying them as I moved to Houston in January 2011. I flew 135k in 2011 and will finish at about 200k this year. I was a DL flyer before but geographically UA makes more sense for me now.

DL will always be my favorite!
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Old Dec 11, 12, 8:22 am   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by santarosaflyer View Post
Surely Jeff will not say downgrading benefits for elite flyers has any impact. His response will surely be that as more of the new Dreamliners come into the fleet, the elite flyers will come running back. Yes, that's it - the delay of the Dreamliners entering the fleet.
Of course not, downgrading elite benefits surely has no impact on these numbers at all, especially since "the highway is no longer under repair"

(hopefully this comment will stick)
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Old Dec 11, 12, 8:34 am   #15
 
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Of course it's down. Look at ord-lga, first 6 flights now are on express! My butt and others are flying AA to LGA.
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